NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

MTL

26-14-7

WSH

24-17-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 13FinalSeriesWSH leads series 2-0VegasWSH -135

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Montreal Canadiens, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (WSH won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

Josh Anderson

RW · #17

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Ethen Frank

C · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

MTL26-14-7

WSH24-17-6

MTL26-14-7WSH24-17-6

MTL

26-14-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

WSH

24-17-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

WSH leads series 2-0

Nov 21

WSH8@

MTL4

Jan 14

MTL2@

WSH3today

Mar 1

WSH2@

MTL6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+11447%

WSH-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat MTL 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MTL	1	1	0	0	2
WSH	0	0	2	1	3

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · WSH won 2

MTL

WSH

Play-by-play · 327 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:21
Game End
MTL 2·WSH 3
OT·4:21
End of OT
MTL 2·WSH 3
OT·4:21
Connor McMichael Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (25), Rasmus Sandin (14)
· ·
MTL 2·WSH 3
OT·4:19
Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:59
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:59
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:52
Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:50
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:46
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:46
Timeout - Home
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:46
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:45
John Carlson Slap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:15
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·3:14
Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·2:39
John Carlson Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·2:30
Dylan Strome Snap Shot Hit Right Post
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·2:08
John Carlson Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·1:54
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·1:54
Nick Suzuki Tripping against Connor McMichael
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·1:51
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·1:51
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·1:49
John Carlson Backhand saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·1:21
Ethen Frank Backhand saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:56
Rasmus Sandin Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:39
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:39
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:38
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:00
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
MTL 2·WSH 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MTL 2·WSH 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 2·WSH 2

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +114/WSH -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Ryan LeonardWSH
2.5± 0.9high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high
Ilya ProtasWSH
1.0± 1.9low
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands