NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

MIN

28-13-9

TOR

24-17-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 19FinalSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasTOR -110

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 6–3.

MIN +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

Marcus Foligno

LW · #17

3Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

Auston Matthews

C · #34

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MIN28-13-9

TOR24-17-8

MIN28-13-9TOR24-17-8

MIN

28-13-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

24-17-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Jan 20

MIN6@

TOR3today

Mar 15

TOR4@

MIN2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-11052%

TOR-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat TOR 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	2	3	1	6
TOR	1	0	2	3

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · TOR won 1

MIN

TOR

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·19:37
Daemon Hunt Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby
·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·19:27
David Jiricek shot blocked by Easton Cowan
·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·19:24
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Hunter Haight
· ·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·19:24
Puck Frozen - Skater
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·19:20
Hunter Haight Tip-In saved by Dennis Hildeby
· ·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·19:17
Hunter Haight Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby
· ·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·19:13
Takeaway by Vinnie Hinostroza
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·19:06
Takeaway by Troy Stecher
·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·18:55
Steven Lorentz Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·18:31
Yakov Trenin hit Simon Benoit
·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·18:29
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·18:29
Puck in Crowd
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·17:22
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·17:22
Marcus Foligno Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (15), Nico Sturm (6)
· ·
MIN 6·TOR 3
3rd·16:48
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot Wide Left
MIN 5·TOR 3
3rd·16:20
Takeaway by Calle Jarnkrok
MIN 5·TOR 3
3rd·16:12
Steven Lorentz hit Jared Spurgeon
·
MIN 5·TOR 3
3rd·15:42
Troy Stecher Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
· ·
MIN 5·TOR 3
3rd·15:14
Giveaway by Brock Faber
MIN 5·TOR 3
3rd·15:02
John Tavares faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
MIN 5·TOR 3
3rd·15:02
Auston Matthews Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (17)
·
MIN 5·TOR 3
3rd·14:32
Easton Cowan Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 5·TOR 2
3rd·13:46
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 5·TOR 2
3rd·13:46
Off-side
MIN 5·TOR 2
3rd·13:30
Giveaway by Auston Matthews
MIN 5·TOR 2
3rd·12:47
Morgan Rielly Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 5·TOR 2
3rd·12:37
Brock Faber Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 5·TOR 2
3rd·12:14
Yakov Trenin hit Bobby McMann
·
MIN 5·TOR 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -110/TOR -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596
Quinn HughesMIN · D
BURSTS1895
Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW
DIST MI43.394

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

TOR vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high

Goals

Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
1.2± 1.1high
William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands