
BUF
23-15-4

NYR
20-19-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
uffalo Sabres went into New York Rangers and beat them, 5–2.
BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BUF · top performer

Ryan McLeod
C · #71
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NYR · top performer

Artemi Panarin
LW · #10
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


BUF
23-15-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
NYR
20-19-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
4
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BUF -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
BUF beat NYR 5-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Period scoring
BUF won 3 · NYR won 0
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 308 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·19:42
Zach Benson Backhand Wide Right
·
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·19:28
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Jonny Brodzinski
·
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·19:28
Off-side
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·19:27
Giveaway by Will Borgen
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:59
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:59
Puck in Netting
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:57
Tage Thompson Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:39
Matt Rempe hit Zach Metsa
·
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:30
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:30
Ryan McLeod Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none
BUF 5·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:23
Ryan McLeod Wrist Shot Wide Right
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:20
Alexis Lafrenière Tip-In saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·18:12
Vladislav Gavrikov Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·17:13
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·17:06
Gabe Perreault Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·17:04
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·16:39
Scott Morrow Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·15:49
Takeaway by Mika Zibanejad
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·15:43
Vladislav Gavrikov Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·15:36
Artemi Panarin Slap Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·15:18
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot Hit Left Post
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·14:53
Vladislav Gavrikov hit Beck Malenstyn
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·14:48
Takeaway by Beck Malenstyn
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·14:38
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Beck Malenstyn
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·14:38
Mattias Samuelsson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (16)
·
BUF 4·NYR 2
- 3rd·14:29
Giveaway by Mattias Samuelsson
BUF 3·NYR 2
- 3rd·14:24
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
BUF 3·NYR 2
- 3rd·14:24
Peyton Krebs High-sticking - double minor against Vincent Trocheck
·
BUF 3·NYR 2
Team stats
BUF
Away
Stat
NYR
Home
21
Shots
32
50.0
PCT
0.0
6
PIM
4
20
Faceoffs W
31
20
Blocks
12
17
Giveaways
13
9
Takeaways
5
Betting line
BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -125/NYR +105
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
J.T. MillerNYR · LWSHOT MPH102.699+
Ryan McLeodBUF · CBURSTS7299
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · DDIST MI263.494
Rasmus DahlinBUF · DDIST MI46.992
Bowen ByramBUF · DBURSTS1691
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · NYR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+105
Close price
+105
Open no-vig
46.8%
Close no-vig
46.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss