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FINAL+1DET
OTT

OTT

22-19-7

34
DET

DET

30-16-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 18FinalSeriesDET leads series 2-0VegasDET -125

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Ottawa Senators, 4–3 in overtime.

OTT +1.5 cashed (DET won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Drake Batherson

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Andrew Copp

Andrew Copp

C · #18

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
OTT22-19-7DET30-16-4
OTT

OTT

22-19-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

30-16-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

PIM

10

Season series

DET leads series 2-0

Jan 6DETDET5@OTTOTT3
Jan 18OTTOTT3@DETDET4today
Feb 27DETDET2@OTTOTT1
Mar 24OTTOTT3@DETDET2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT+10549%
DETDET-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat OTT 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
OTT21003
DET12014

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · DET won 2

2
1

1

1
2

2

0
0

3

0
1

OT

OTT
DET

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:36

    Game End

    OTT 3·DET 4

  2. OT·0:36

    End of OT

    OTT 3·DET 4

  3. OT·0:36

    Alex DeBrincat Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (22)

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 4

  4. OT·0:07

    Jake Sanderson Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  5. OT·0:00

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  6. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    OTT 3·DET 3

  7. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 3·DET 3

  8. 3rd·19:58

    Alex DeBrincat Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  9. 3rd·19:45

    Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Thomas Chabot

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  10. 3rd·19:14

    Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  11. 3rd·19:14

    Icing

    OTT 3·DET 3

  12. 3rd·19:07

    Dylan Cozens faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  13. 3rd·19:07

    Off-side

    OTT 3·DET 3

  14. 3rd·18:14

    Shane Pinto shot blocked by Albert Johansson

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  15. 3rd·18:13

    Michael Amadio shot blocked by Ben Chiarot

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  16. 3rd·17:02

    Albert Johansson Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  17. 3rd·16:52

    Fabian Zetterlund Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  18. 3rd·16:37

    Giveaway by Andrew Copp

    OTT 3·DET 3

  19. 3rd·16:08

    Moritz Seider Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  20. 3rd·15:26

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  21. 3rd·15:26

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    OTT 3·DET 3

  22. 3rd·15:24

    Jordan Spence Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  23. 3rd·15:15

    Giveaway by Andrew Copp

    OTT 3·DET 3

  24. 3rd·14:45

    Nick Cousins hit Mason Appleton

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  25. 3rd·14:06

    Giveaway by Elmer Soderblom

    OTT 3·DET 3

  26. 3rd·13:51

    Thomas Chabot hit Michael Rasmussen

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  27. 3rd·13:30

    Takeaway by Marco Kasper

    OTT 3·DET 3

  28. 3rd·12:16

    Alex DeBrincat hit Dylan Cozens

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  29. 3rd·12:05

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

  30. 3rd·11:40

    Emmitt Finnie Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·DET 3

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

DET

Home

22

Shots

34

66.7

PCT

40.0

14

PIM

10

32

Faceoffs W

22

10

Blocks

11

11

Giveaways

18

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +105/DET -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Dylan LarkinDET · C
    DIST MI243.094
  • J.T. CompherDET · LW
    BURSTS15888

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR