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FINAL+3BUF
PHI

PHI

22-15-8

25
BUF

BUF

25-16-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 14FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-1VegasBUF -142

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Philadelphia Flyers, 5–2.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Owen Tippett

Owen Tippett

RW · #74

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
5
PHI22-15-8BUF25-16-4
PHI

PHI

22-15-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

25-16-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

10

Season series

BUF wins series 2-1

Dec 4BUFBUF2@PHIPHI5
Dec 19PHIPHI3@BUFBUF5
Jan 15PHIPHI2@BUFBUF5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+12045%
BUFBUF-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat PHI 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI0112
BUF2215

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · BUF won 2

0
2

1

1
2

2

1
1

3

PHI
BUF

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 2·BUF 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 2·BUF 5

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Emil Andrae Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 5

  4. 3rd·19:20

    Beck Malenstyn faceoff won against Rodrigo Abols

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 5

  5. 3rd·19:20

    Ryan McLeod Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (23)

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 5

  6. 3rd·19:08

    Matvei Michkov shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  7. 3rd·19:04

    Matvei Michkov shot blocked by Travis Konecny

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  8. 3rd·18:48

    Travis Konecny Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  9. 3rd·18:39

    Matvei Michkov Backhand Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  10. 3rd·18:38

    Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  11. 3rd·17:56

    Alex Tuch shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  12. 3rd·17:53

    Travis Konecny shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  13. 3rd·17:45

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  14. 3rd·17:45

    Timeout - Visitor

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  15. 3rd·17:45

    Bowen Byram Holding against Matvei Michkov

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  16. 3rd·17:39

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Josh Doan

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  17. 3rd·17:14

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  18. 3rd·17:14

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  19. 3rd·17:12

    Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  20. 3rd·16:55

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  21. 3rd·16:55

    Icing

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  22. 3rd·16:44

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  23. 3rd·16:44

    Off-side

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  24. 3rd·16:22

    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  25. 3rd·16:00

    Peyton Krebs hit Emil Andrae

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  26. 3rd·15:17

    Jack Quinn Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  27. 3rd·14:58

    Giveaway by Ryan McLeod

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  28. 3rd·14:35

    Travis Konecny Backhand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  29. 3rd·13:58

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Jason Zucker

    ·

    PHI 2·BUF 4

  30. 3rd·13:58

    Puck in Crowd

    PHI 2·BUF 4

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

22

Shots

15

20.0

PCT

33.3

12

PIM

10

31

Faceoffs W

28

9

Blocks

9

5

Giveaways

18

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +120/BUF -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR