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FINAL+2BUF
MTL

MTL

26-15-7

35
BUF

BUF

26-16-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMTL -125

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Montreal Canadiens, 5–3.

BUF +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Tage Thompson

Tage Thompson

C · #72

5Points

3

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
MTL26-15-7BUF26-16-4
MTL

MTL

26-15-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

26-16-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

10

Playoff series

May 6MTLMTL2@BUFBUF4
May 8MTLMTL5@BUFBUF1
May 10BUFBUF2@MTLMTL6
May 12BUFBUF3@MTLMTL2
May 14MTLMTL6@BUFBUF3
May 17BUFBUF8@MTLMTL3
May 18MTLMTL3@BUFBUF2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL-12556%
BUFBUF+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat MTL 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL2103
BUF2125

Period scoring

MTL won 0 · BUF won 1

2
2

1

1
1

2

0
2

3

MTL
BUF

Play-by-play · 299 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Colten Ellis shot blocked by Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  4. 3rd·19:55

    Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  5. 3rd·19:42

    Alex Tuch hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  6. 3rd·19:38

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Lane Hutson

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  7. 3rd·19:16

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  8. 3rd·19:16

    Off-side

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  9. 3rd·18:20

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  10. 3rd·18:20

    Tage Thompson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (17)

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 5

  11. 3rd·17:53

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  12. 3rd·17:53

    High Stick

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  13. 3rd·17:52

    Zachary Bolduc hit Owen Power

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  14. 3rd·17:31

    Josh Anderson Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  15. 3rd·16:46

    Mike Matheson shot blocked by Tage Thompson

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  16. 3rd·16:30

    Alex Tuch hit Juraj Slafkovský

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  17. 3rd·15:27

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  18. 3rd·15:27

    Puck in Crowd

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  19. 3rd·15:20

    Arber Xhekaj hit Jack Quinn

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  20. 3rd·14:53

    Giveaway by Jason Zucker

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  21. 3rd·13:50

    Alexandre Texier Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  22. 3rd·12:11

    Kaiden Guhle Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  23. 3rd·11:52

    Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  24. 3rd·11:48

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  25. 3rd·11:48

    Icing

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  26. 3rd·11:33

    Alexandre Texier Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  27. 3rd·11:31

    Cole Caufield Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  28. 3rd·11:16

    Giveaway by Zach Benson

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  29. 3rd·11:04

    Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Jason Zucker

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

  30. 3rd·10:56

    Oliver Kapanen Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 4

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

23

Shots

27

66.7

PCT

50.0

12

PIM

10

33

Faceoffs W

23

18

Blocks

6

14

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -125/BUF +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR