Live · 2
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FINAL+1MIN
MIN

MIN

27-13-9

54
BUF

BUF

26-16-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 17FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBUF -125

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 5–4 in overtime.

MIN +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Kirill Kaprizov

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Ryan McLeod

Ryan McLeod

C · #71

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
5
4
MIN27-13-9BUF26-16-5
MIN

MIN

27-13-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

26-16-5

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

15

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 30BUFBUF3@MINMIN2
Jan 17MINMIN5@BUFBUF4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+10549%
BUFBUF-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat BUF 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
MIN22015
BUF13004

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · BUF won 1

2
1

1

2
3

2

0
0

3

1
0

OT

MIN
BUF

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·1:46

    Game End

    MIN 5·BUF 4

  2. OT·1:46

    End of OT

    MIN 5·BUF 4

  3. OT·1:46

    Mats Zuccarello Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (30), Filip Gustavsson (1)

    · ·

    MIN 5·BUF 4

  4. OT·1:14

    Kirill Kaprizov Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  5. OT·1:08

    Quinn Hughes Slap Shot High and Wide Left

    · ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  6. OT·0:38

    Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Ryan Hartman

    · ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  7. OT·0:17

    Jordan Greenway hit Kirill Kaprizov

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  8. OT·0:00

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  9. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  10. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  11. 3rd·19:59

    Vladimir Tarasenko shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  12. 3rd·19:58

    Kirill Kaprizov shot blocked by Vladimir Tarasenko

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  13. 3rd·19:46

    Mats Zuccarello faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  14. 3rd·19:46

    Peyton Krebs Hooking against Vladimir Tarasenko

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  15. 3rd·19:42

    Yakov Trenin hit Owen Power

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  16. 3rd·19:11

    Takeaway by Nico Sturm

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  17. 3rd·18:56

    Jack Quinn Snap Shot Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  18. 3rd·18:54

    Jake Middleton hit Ryan McLeod

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  19. 3rd·18:33

    Takeaway by Brock Faber

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  20. 3rd·18:27

    Mats Zuccarello shot blocked by Owen Power

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  21. 3rd·18:25

    Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Ryan Hartman

    · ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  22. 3rd·17:49

    Beck Malenstyn hit Kirill Kaprizov

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  23. 3rd·17:17

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  24. 3rd·16:54

    Danila Yurov faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  25. 3rd·16:54

    Icing

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  26. 3rd·16:46

    Danila Yurov faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  27. 3rd·16:46

    Icing

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  28. 3rd·16:31

    Danila Yurov faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  29. 3rd·16:31

    Off-side

    MIN 4·BUF 4

  30. 3rd·16:12

    Kirill Kaprizov hit Josh Doan

    ·

    MIN 4·BUF 4

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

36

Shots

24

25.0

PCT

25.0

15

PIM

15

32

Faceoffs W

26

9

Blocks

16

11

Giveaways

10

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +105/BUF -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.696
  • Quinn HughesMIN · D
    BURSTS1895
  • Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW
    DIST MI43.394

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR