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FINAL+2DET
SJ

SJ

24-20-3

24
DET

DET

29-16-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Jan 16FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasDET -166

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off San Jose Sharks, 4–2.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Macklin Celebrini

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Lucas Raymond

Lucas Raymond

LW · #23

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
SJ24-20-3DET29-16-4
SJ

SJ

24-20-3

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

29-16-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

2

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Nov 3DETDET3@SJSJ2
Jan 17SJSJ2@DETDET4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+14042%
DETDET-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat SJ 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ1102
DET1124

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · DET won 1

1
1

1

1
1

2

0
2

3

SJ
DET

Play-by-play · 279 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 2·DET 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 2·DET 4

  3. 3rd·19:49

    Pavol Regenda shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 4

  4. 3rd·19:36

    Adam Gaudette shot blocked by Alex DeBrincat

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 4

  5. 3rd·19:33

    Simon Edvinsson hit Collin Graf

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 4

  6. 3rd·19:03

    Giveaway by Sam Dickinson

    SJ 2·DET 4

  7. 3rd·18:54

    Elmer Soderblom hit Sam Dickinson

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 4

  8. 3rd·18:47

    Pavol Regenda Deflected saved by John Gibson

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 4

  9. 3rd·18:44

    Giveaway by Mason Appleton

    SJ 2·DET 4

  10. 3rd·18:28

    Pavol Regenda faceoff won against Michael Rasmussen

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 4

  11. 3rd·18:28

    Marco Kasper Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (38)

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 4

  12. 3rd·17:44

    John Klingberg shot blocked by Will Smith

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  13. 3rd·17:22

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  14. 3rd·17:22

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 2·DET 3

  15. 3rd·17:21

    Igor Chernyshov Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  16. 3rd·17:05

    Michael Misa shot blocked by Ben Chiarot

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  17. 3rd·16:34

    Marco Kasper shot blocked by Sam Dickinson

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  18. 3rd·16:32

    Giveaway by John Klingberg

    SJ 2·DET 3

  19. 3rd·16:20

    Collin Graf Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  20. 3rd·16:16

    Macklin Celebrini shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  21. 3rd·16:12

    John Klingberg shot blocked by Moritz Seider

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  22. 3rd·15:46

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  23. 3rd·15:46

    Hand Pass

    SJ 2·DET 3

  24. 3rd·15:33

    Giveaway by Mario Ferraro

    SJ 2·DET 3

  25. 3rd·15:30

    Marco Kasper Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  26. 3rd·15:29

    Marco Kasper Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  27. 3rd·15:26

    J.T. Compher Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  28. 3rd·14:48

    Giveaway by Alexander Wennberg

    SJ 2·DET 3

  29. 3rd·14:32

    William Eklund Snap Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    SJ 2·DET 3

  30. 3rd·13:59

    Takeaway by Jacob Bernard-Docker

    SJ 2·DET 3

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

DET

Home

22

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

2

23

Faceoffs W

26

16

Blocks

17

22

Giveaways

11

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +140/DET -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Dylan LarkinDET · C
    DIST MI243.094
  • J.T. CompherDET · LW
    BURSTS15888

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR