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FINAL+1EDM
EDM

EDM

22-16-6

43
WPG

WPG

15-22-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 8FinalSeriesEDM wins series 3-0VegasEDM -115

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 4–3.

WPG +1.5 cashed (EDM won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid

C · #97

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Kyle Connor

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
EDM22-16-6WPG15-22-5
EDM

EDM

22-16-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

15-22-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

9

Season series

EDM wins series 3-0

Dec 7WPGWPG2@EDMEDM6
Dec 30EDMEDM3@WPGWPG1
Jan 9EDMEDM4@WPGWPG3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM-11553%
WPGWPG-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat WPG 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
EDM1124
WPG3003

Period scoring

EDM won 2 · WPG won 1

1
3

1

1
0

2

2
0

3

EDM
WPG

Play-by-play · 255 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  3. 3rd·19:34

    Takeaway by Zach Hyman

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  4. 3rd·18:47

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Jonathan Toews

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  5. 3rd·18:47

    Off-side

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  6. 3rd·18:39

    Neal Pionk shot blocked by Darnell Nurse

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  7. 3rd·18:28

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Jonathan Toews

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  8. 3rd·18:28

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  9. 3rd·18:26

    Mark Scheifele Wrist Shot saved by Calvin Pickard

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  10. 3rd·18:17

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Jonathan Toews

    · ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  11. 3rd·18:17

    Icing

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  12. 3rd·18:03

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    · ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  13. 3rd·18:03

    Icing

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  14. 3rd·17:37

    Mattias Janmark Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  15. 3rd·16:57

    Morgan Barron shot blocked by Josh Morrissey

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  16. 3rd·16:52

    Adam Lowry hit Mattias Ekholm

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  17. 3rd·16:30

    Giveaway by Neal Pionk

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  18. 3rd·16:28

    Giveaway by Matt Savoie

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  19. 3rd·16:24

    Alex Iafallo Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  20. 3rd·14:28

    Josh Morrissey Slap Shot saved by Calvin Pickard

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  21. 3rd·14:24

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    · ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  22. 3rd·14:24

    TV Timeout

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  23. 3rd·14:24

    Jack Roslovic High-sticking against Adam Lowry

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  24. 3rd·13:38

    Darnell Nurse Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  25. 3rd·13:18

    Vasily Podkolzin hit Mark Scheifele

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  26. 3rd·12:21

    Tanner Pearson hit Mattias Ekholm

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  27. 3rd·12:12

    Giveaway by Connor McDavid

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  28. 3rd·12:10

    Connor McDavid Backhand saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  29. 3rd·11:59

    Giveaway by Cole Koepke

    EDM 4·WPG 3

  30. 3rd·11:49

    Cole Koepke hit Riley Stillman

    ·

    EDM 4·WPG 3

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

30

Shots

16

50.0

PCT

0.0

9

PIM

9

23

Faceoffs W

21

8

Blocks

9

16

Giveaways

16

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -115/WPG -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
    DIST MI282.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR