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FINAL+2BUF
BUF

BUF

20-14-4

42
STL

STL

15-17-8

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLMon, Dec 29FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBUF -115

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 4–2.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

STL · top performer

STL
Robby Fabbri

Robby Fabbri

C · #9

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
BUF20-14-4STL15-17-8
BUF

BUF

20-14-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
STL

STL

15-17-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 7STLSTL3@BUFBUF0
Dec 30BUFBUF4@STLSTL2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-11553%
STLSTL-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat STL 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF1124
STL2002

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · STL won 1

1
2

1

1
0

2

2
0

3

BUF
STL

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 4·STL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 4·STL 2

  3. 3rd·19:39

    Mathieu Joseph shot blocked by Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 4·STL 2

  4. 3rd·18:44

    Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 4·STL 2

  5. 3rd·18:44

    Peyton Krebs Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (3)

    ·

    BUF 4·STL 2

  6. 3rd·18:37

    Giveaway by Jake Neighbours

    BUF 3·STL 2

  7. 3rd·16:56

    Philip Broberg shot blocked by Robert Thomas

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  8. 3rd·16:51

    Justin Faulk Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  9. 3rd·16:33

    Robert Thomas faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  10. 3rd·16:33

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·STL 2

  11. 3rd·16:31

    Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  12. 3rd·16:15

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  13. 3rd·16:02

    Colton Parayko hit Josh Doan

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  14. 3rd·15:55

    Oskar Sundqvist faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  15. 3rd·15:55

    Pavel Buchnevich High-sticking against Zach Metsa

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  16. 3rd·15:02

    Giveaway by Michael Kesselring

    BUF 3·STL 2

  17. 3rd·14:49

    Giveaway by Alex Tuch

    BUF 3·STL 2

  18. 3rd·14:44

    Michael Kesselring shot blocked by Alexey Toropchenko

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  19. 3rd·14:41

    Giveaway by Philip Broberg

    BUF 3·STL 2

  20. 3rd·14:36

    Michael Kesselring Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  21. 3rd·14:34

    Alex Tuch shot blocked by Colton Parayko

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  22. 3rd·14:32

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Brayden Schenn

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  23. 3rd·14:32

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·STL 2

  24. 3rd·14:31

    Mattias Samuelsson shot blocked by Mathieu Joseph

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  25. 3rd·14:22

    Justin Faulk hit Jack Quinn

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  26. 3rd·13:59

    Jack Quinn Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  27. 3rd·13:53

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  28. 3rd·13:53

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·STL 2

  29. 3rd·13:51

    Rasmus Dahlin Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    BUF 3·STL 2

  30. 3rd·13:38

    Takeaway by Tage Thompson

    BUF 3·STL 2

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

STL

Home

34

Shots

18

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

6

30

Faceoffs W

24

11

Blocks

18

12

Giveaways

17

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·BUF -115/STL -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Colton ParaykoSTL · D
    BURSTS9494
  • Cam FowlerSTL · D
    DIST MI260.294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR