Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CBJ

CBJ

26-20-7

CHI

21-25-9

NHLFri, Jan 30FinalSeriesCBJ lead series 1-0VegasCBJ -162

CBJ · top performer

Charlie Coyle

C · #3

4Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Frank Nazar

C · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	3	1	3	6	1	1	0	19:37
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	19:33
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	13:00
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	11:47
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:56
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	18:05
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	19:47
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	14:53
M. OlivierRW · #24	1	1	3	2	3	0	0	15:29
C. SillingerC · #4	0	1	3	1	0	2	0	14:29
D. VoronkovLW · #10	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	8:03
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:38
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	18:09
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:15
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	22:42
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	25:15
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	2	2	3	0	2	0	27:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. MerzlikinsG · #90	24	2	22	.917	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	22:54
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	22:20
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	10:47
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:06
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:18
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:43
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	6:44
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:27
O. MooreC · #11	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:48
F. NazarC · #91	1	0	0	4	0	1	0	22:16
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:15
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	15:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	0	2	3	4	0	16:45
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	-2	2	1	1	2	16:31
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:16
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	19:57
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	22:16
A. VlasicD · #72	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	25	3	22	.880	59:41

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ lead series 1-0

Jan 31

CBJ4@

CHI2today

Feb 5

CHI0@

CBJ4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-16262%

CHI+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat CHI 4-2. C. Coyle led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	1	2	1	4
CHI	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

CBJ won 2 · CHI won 0

CBJ

CHI

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 4·CHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 4·CHI 2
3rd·19:38
Erik Gudbranson hit Alex Vlasic
·
CBJ 4·CHI 2
3rd·18:57
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Oliver Moore
·
CBJ 4·CHI 2
3rd·18:57
Charlie Coyle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (18), Mathieu Olivier (9)
· ·
CBJ 4·CHI 2
3rd·18:48
Frank Nazar Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·18:38
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·18:38
Icing
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·17:24
Giveaway by Alex Vlasic
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·17:22
Giveaway by Adam Fantilli
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:52
Giveaway by Adam Fantilli
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:26
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:19
Tyler Bertuzzi Backhand Wide Left
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:18
Sam Rinzel Wrist Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:09
Tyler Bertuzzi shot blocked by Ivan Provorov
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·16:03
Teuvo Teravainen Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·15:57
Teuvo Teravainen Wrist Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·15:50
Tyler Bertuzzi Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·15:41
Tyler Bertuzzi Deflected Hit Left Post
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·14:27
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Teuvo Teravainen
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·14:27
Puck in Penalty Benches
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·14:22
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Teuvo Teravainen
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·14:22
TV Timeout
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·14:22
Kent Johnson Holding against Teuvo Teravainen
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·14:16
Matt Grzelcyk Slap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·13:33
Teuvo Teravainen Slap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·13:22
Sam Rinzel Wrist Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·13:20
Ryan Greene faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·13:20
Puck in Crowd
CBJ 3·CHI 2
3rd·12:52
Kirill Marchenko hit Frank Nazar
·
CBJ 3·CHI 2

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -162/CHI +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 4–2.

CBJ -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
51.5%
P(CHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.5%
P(CHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.5%
P(CHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.