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SF#14 · National Football Conference

San Francisco 49ers

0-0 (0.0%) · -

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#9 of 32

Elo rating 1556.2 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings

Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2025-12-22 → 2026-01-17 · Full ATS profile →

latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01

Model picks on SF

No graded picks for this league yet

Graded snap by snap

How good were they, snap to snap?

Their offense ranked 6th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 955 graded plays; the defense ranked 26th across 883.

EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.

955 off plays · 883 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds

OFFENSE · 2025 REG

+0.107

Team EPA per play

6th of 32

lg avg +0.009

DEFENSE · 2025 REG

+0.078

Team EPA per play allowed

26th of 32

lg avg +0.014

The full split955/883 plays

Offense — team-wide, every graded snap

All plays+0.10784

6th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.090 (8th)

Success49.2%94

3rd of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 47.3% (9th)

Explosive7.5%55

15th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 9.8% (5th)

Dropbacks+0.19287

5th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.191 (4th)

Rushes-0.01771

10th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.070 (17th)

Defense — allowed, lower is better

All plays+0.07819

26th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.020 (16th)

Success48.5%6

30th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 45.1% (20th)

Explosive6.7%71

10th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 6.6% (1st)

Dropbacks+0.16316

27th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.029 (11th)

Rushes-0.05755

15th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG +0.008 (27th)

Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.

Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.

Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.107 · 2024 REG +0.090 · +0.017

Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.078 · 2024 REG +0.020 · +0.058

Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.

nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 955 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1

nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Passing yards

1Brock Purdy20 TD2,167
2Mac Jones13 TD2,151

Rushing yards

1Christian McCaffrey10 TD1,202
2Brian Robinson2 TD400
3Brock Purdy3 TD147
4Mac Jones0 TD60
5Skyy Moore0 TD11

Receiving yards

1Christian McCaffrey7 TD924
2Jauan Jennings9 TD643
3George Kittle7 TD628
4Kendrick Bourne0 TD551
5Ricky Pearsall0 TD528

Receptions

1Christian McCaffrey17 G102
2George Kittle11 G57
3Jauan Jennings15 G55
4Kendrick Bourne14 G37
5Ricky Pearsall9 G36

Total TDs

1Brock Purdy9 G23
2Christian McCaffrey17 G17
3Mac Jones11 G13
4Jauan Jennings15 G9
5George Kittle11 G7

Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.

Yards per carry

1Brian Robinson92 car4.3
2Christian McCaffrey311 car3.9

Min 50 carries.

2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries

Under center

What the QB is worth

QB value (our estimate)

Brock Purdy

342 att · n=42 qualified QBs

Our QBR estimate76.3

EPA / play+0.206
Accuracy +4.0%
Pressure0.2%

Built on +0.206 EPA/play and 4.0% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.

Box-score power tier · league of 32

Where they rank

Strong

avg rank 12.8

YDS

8th

Total yards

PASS

6th

Pass yards

RUSH

24th

Rush yards

PTS

6th

Points

20th

Turnovers

Offensive profile · 2025

How the offense plays

Per-game · 17 weeks

Identity · Pass-heavy

70% pass · 30% rush

PASS

RUSH

Total yards

361vs 342 yds/GSlight edge

Passing yards

254vs 225 yds/GSlight edge

Rushing yards

107vs 117 yds/GSlight gap

Points scored

28.6vs 23.5 pts/GAbove avg

Turnovers

1.10vs 0.90 TO/GBelow avg

Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.

2026 Draft Class · 6 picks

The new arrivals.

RND 2 · PICK 33

De'Zhaun-Ryan Stribling

WR · Mississippi

RND 3 · PICK 70

Romello Height

EDGE · Texas Tech

RND 4 · PICK 107

Gracen Halton

DT · Oklahoma

RND 4 · PICK 127

Carver Willis

OT · Washington

RND 4 · PICK 139

Ephesians Prysock

CB · Washington

RND 5 · PICK 179

Enrique Cruz

OT · Kansas

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves

Jun 10
Signed RB Sincere McCormick to a one-year contract. Waived RB Jordan Mims.
Jun 2
Signed S Ashtyn Davis to a one-year contract. Waived RB Jermar Jefferson.
May 28
Waived RB Sincere McCormick. Signed RBs Jermar Jefferson and Jordan Mims.

Source · ESPN

Offense · 48