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MIA
7Live14:55 - 3rd
WSH
17Updated 8:47 PM ET
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
14:55 - 3RD+10WSH
MIA
0-0
717
WSH
0-0
NFL · Drive chart
12 drives · 3 TD · 1 FG · 2 INT · 1 Downs · 3 PuntTDMIA14p · 93y PuntWSH6p · 27y DownsMIA8p · 48y INTWSH6p · 23y INTMIA3p · 3y FGWSH7p · 24y PuntMIA3p · 8y TDWSH7p · 68y PuntMIA3p · 7y TDWSH11p · 65y ½MIA1p —WSH1p · 4y
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props
Tale of the tape
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
MIA
league avg
WSH
21.2
Pts / game
◀
23.5
20.5
316
Yds / game
342
▶331
195
Pass yds / G
225
196
120
Rush yds / G
117
▶135
1.3
TO / G
0.9
▶1.1
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
