Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAL at OKC?

The model favors LAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18OKC

LAL

53-29

107125

OKC

64-18

NBAThu, May 7FinalSeriesOKC wins series 4-0VegasOKC -15.5

LAL · top performer

Austin Reaves

G · #15

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Chet Holmgren

C · #7

24.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 40pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	38	23	9-18	1-4	4-4	-9	2	6
R. HachimuraF · #28	39	16	6-10	4-7	—	-19	4	2
D. AytonC · #5	27	3	1-7	—	1-2	-4	10	0
M. SmartG · #36	34	14	4-13	1-7	5-5	+2	4	5
A. ReavesG · #15	38	31	10-16	3-6	8-10	-20	2	6
Bench
J. LaRaviaF · #12	10	0	0-2	0-1	—	-14	0	1
D. KnechtF · #4	2	2	1-1	—	—	-1	1	0
A. ThieroF · #1	6	0	—	—	—	+3	3	0
J. HayesC · #11	15	6	3-3	—	—	-11	3	2
L. KennardG · #10	26	10	4-5	2-3	—	-15	1	0
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	2	2	1-3	0-1	—	-1	0	1
B. JamesG · #9	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	1
Team		107	39-78	11-29	18-21		30	24
DNP: M. Kleber

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	27	10	5-6	—	—	+1	9	1
C. HolmgrenC · #7	33	22	7-11	3-5	5-7	+19	9	3
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	28	22	7-13	1-3	7-9	+5	2	2
L. DortG · #5	23	3	1-6	1-6	—	-1	1	2
A. MitchellG · #25	30	20	7-12	0-3	6-7	+18	3	6
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	15	7	2-4	2-4	1-1	+12	2	1
A. CarusoG · #9	22	5	2-6	1-5	—	+17	4	4
K. WilliamsG · #34	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	0	0
I. JoeG · #11	9	4	2-3	0-1	—	-1	0	3
A. WigginsG · #21	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
C. WallaceG · #22	31	12	4-7	2-3	2-2	+17	2	4
J. McCainG · #3	18	18	7-11	4-5	—	+1	0	0
N. TopicG · #44	1	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
Team		125	45-81	14-36	21-26		32	26

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

39-78

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-81

FG %

11-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-36

18-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-26

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC leads series 2-0

May 6

LAL90@

OKC108

May 8

LAL107@

OKC125today

May 10

OKC131@

LAL108

May 12

OKC115@

LAL110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

211.5

Defensive · -14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL+60014%

OKC-90090%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -15.5↗SpreadBet OKC -15.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

211.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat LAL 125-107. C. Holmgren led with 22 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. OKC outscored the other side 36-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST

GS 60

Bench(7)

20 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 14

OKCstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST

GS 68

Bench(8)

48 PTS · 8 REB · 12 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL3rd Quarter · 10:34 · 65-61

+16pp→ 46% WP

Austin Reaves · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2

LAL3rd Quarter · 10:34 · 66-61

+13pp→ 47% WP

Cason Wallace · enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

OKC3rd Quarter · 2:17 · 74-85

+39pp→ 95% WP

Jared McCain · misses 8-foot fade away jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	23	35	22	27	107
OKC	27	30	36	32	125

Period scoring

LAL won 1 · OKC won 3

Hachimura 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 8

Smart 8

Mitchell 11

Reaves 10

McCain 32

James 9

Gilgeous-Alexander 9

LAL

OKC

Shooting comparison

LAL

OKC

50%

39-78

56%

45-81

38%

11-29

3PT

39%

14-36

86%

18-21

81%

21-26

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 107·OKC 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 107·OKC 125
Q4·1.1
Adou Thiero lost ball turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)
·
LAL 107·OKC 125
Q4·1.7
Adou Thiero offensive rebound
LAL 107·OKC 125
Q4·3.4
Nick Smith Jr. misses layup
LAL 107·OKC 125
Q4·9.1
shot clock turnover
LAL 107·OKC 125
Q4·33.2
Dalton Knecht makes driving layup (Nick Smith Jr. assists)
·
LAL 107·OKC 125
Q4·57.4
Nikola Topic makes two point shot (Isaiah Joe assists)
·
LAL 105·OKC 125
Q4·1:17
Nikola Topic enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
LAL 105·OKC 123
Q4·1:17
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
LAL 105·OKC 123
Q4·1:17
Dalton Knecht out of bounds bad pass turnover
LAL 105·OKC 123
Q4·1:18
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
LAL 105·OKC 123
Q4·1:21
Kenrich Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
LAL 105·OKC 123
Q4·1:35
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
LAL 105·OKC 123
Q4·1:39
Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 105·OKC 123
Q4·1:46
Jared McCain makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)
·
LAL 105·OKC 123
Q4·2:09
Nick Smith Jr. makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Bronny James assists)
· ·
LAL 105·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
Adou Thiero enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
Dalton Knecht enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
Jake LaRavia enters the game for Austin Reaves
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
Bronny James enters the game for Luke Kennard
· ·
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Alex Caruso
· ·
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
Jared McCain enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:14
8 second turnover
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:21
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:24
Marcus Smart misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:39
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup
LAL 103·OKC 120
Q4·2:51
Austin Reaves makes two point shot
LAL 103·OKC 118

Betting line

OKC -15.5·O/U 211.5·LAL +600/OKC -900

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Los Angeles Lakers, 125–107.

OKC -15.5 cashed (won by 18). Total cleared the 211.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897
Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797
Isaiah HartensteinOKC · C
DEFL2.789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.1%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
71.5%
P(OKC win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
72.2%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
66.5%
P(OKC win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.91

CLV pp

Open price

+650

Close price

+600

Open no-vig

12.8%

Close no-vig

13.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAL at OKC?: The model favors LAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

OKC vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Matisse ThybulleLAL
1.7± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

OKC

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.9%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.2%

114.8

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

25.8

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Team pages

Los Angeles LakersOklahoma City Thunder

Elsewhere in the NBA

Cavaliers97Pistons107Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR