May 5, 26sim 94
1390
25(H)108
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+18OKC
LAL
53-29
107125
OKC
64-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 48 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off Los Angeles Lakers, 125–107.
OKC -15.5 cashed (won by 18). Total cleared the 211.5 OVER by 20.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAL · top performer
Austin Reaves
G · #15
20.8Game score
31
Pts
2
Reb
6
Ast
OKC · top performer
Chet Holmgren
C · #7
24.5Game score
22
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LAL53-29
107125
OKC64-18
LAL53-29OKC64-18
LAL
53-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 38 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -9 | |
TOUCHES78.985 DRIVES8.358 DEFL2.552 | ||||||||
| 39 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -19 | |
CONT6.576 TOUCHES44.320 DRIVES3.818 | ||||||||
| 27 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 34 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
DEFL4.399+ TOUCHES76.176 CONT5.565 | ||||||||
| 38 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -20 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 15 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| Team | 107 | 30 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 20 | ||
| DNP: M. Kleber | ||||||||
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | |
| 33 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +19 | |
| 28 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 30 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
| 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 22 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +17 | |
| 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 31 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +17 | |
| 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| Team | 125 | 32 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 12 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
56
24
Ast
26
Playoff series
OKC leads series 2-0
May 6LAL90@OKC108
LAL90@OKC108May 8LAL107@OKC125today
LAL107@OKC125todayMay 10OKC131@LAL108
OKC131@LAL108May 12OKC115@LAL110
OKC115@LAL110Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -15.5
Between 10 and —
Total
211.5
Defensive · -14.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAL+60014%OKC-90090%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
15.5
0.0 since open
Total
211.5
-2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowLAL ↔ OKC
Biggest swing: 40pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:34
LALA. Reaves
GGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST
OKCC. Holmgren
CGame leader · 33 min
22 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
OKC beat LAL 125-107. C. Holmgren led with 22 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. OKC outscored the other side 36-22 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs LAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitLALstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
87 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST
GS 60
Bench(7)
20 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
GS 14
OKCstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST
GS 68
Bench(8)
48 PTS · 8 REB · 12 AST
GS 43
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLAL3rd Quarter · 10:34 · 65-61
+16pp→ 46% WP
Austin Reaves · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
LAL3rd Quarter · 10:34 · 66-61
+13pp→ 47% WP
Cason Wallace · enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC3rd Quarter · 2:17 · 74-85
+39pp→ 95% WP
Jared McCain · misses 8-foot fade away jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 23 | 35 | 22 | 27 | 107 |
| OKC | 27 | 30 | 36 | 32 | 125 |
Period scoring
LAL won 1 · OKC won 3
23
27
Q1
Hachimura 8
Gilgeous-Alexander 8
35
30
Q2
Smart 8
Mitchell 11
22
36
Q3
Reaves 10
McCain 32
27
32
Q4
James 9
Gilgeous-Alexander 9
LAL
OKC
Shooting comparison
LAL
OKC
50%
39-78
FG
56%
45-81
38%
11-29
3PT
39%
14-36
86%
18-21
FT
81%
21-26
Play-by-play · 479 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 107·OKC 125
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 107·OKC 125
- Q4·1.1
Adou Thiero lost ball turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)
·
LAL 107·OKC 125
- Q4·1.7
Adou Thiero offensive rebound
LAL 107·OKC 125
- Q4·3.4
Nick Smith Jr. misses layup
LAL 107·OKC 125
- Q4·9.1
shot clock turnover
LAL 107·OKC 125
- Q4·33.2
Dalton Knecht makes driving layup (Nick Smith Jr. assists)
·
LAL 107·OKC 125
- Q4·57.4
Nikola Topic makes two point shot (Isaiah Joe assists)
·
LAL 105·OKC 125
- Q4·1:17
Nikola Topic enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
LAL 105·OKC 123
- Q4·1:17
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
LAL 105·OKC 123
- Q4·1:17
Dalton Knecht out of bounds bad pass turnover
LAL 105·OKC 123
- Q4·1:18
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
LAL 105·OKC 123
- Q4·1:21
Kenrich Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
LAL 105·OKC 123
- Q4·1:35
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
LAL 105·OKC 123
- Q4·1:39
Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 105·OKC 123
- Q4·1:46
Jared McCain makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)
·
LAL 105·OKC 123
- Q4·2:09
Nick Smith Jr. makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Bronny James assists)
· ·
LAL 105·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
Adou Thiero enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
Dalton Knecht enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
Jake LaRavia enters the game for Austin Reaves
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
Bronny James enters the game for Luke Kennard
· ·
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Alex Caruso
· ·
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
Jared McCain enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:14
8 second turnover
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:21
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:24
Marcus Smart misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:39
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup
LAL 103·OKC 120
- Q4·2:51
Austin Reaves makes two point shot
LAL 103·OKC 118
Team stats
LAL
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
39-78
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
45-81
50
FG %
56
11-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-36
18-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-26
24
Assists
26
20
Turnovers
12
Betting line
OKC -15.5·O/U 211.5·LAL +600/OKC -900
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 16 players in cohort
Marcus SmartLAL · GDEFL4.399+
LeBron JamesLAL · FTOUCHES78.985
Rui HachimuraLAL · FCONT6.576
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
69.3%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
71.5%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
67.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
69.5%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.84 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.91
CLV pp
Open price
+650
Close price
+600
Open no-vig
12.8%
Close no-vig
13.7%
Market came to the model · Graded: miss
Player projections
OKC vs LAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC26.6± 6.4high
- LeBron JamesLAL22.2± 5.8high
Rebounds
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.8± 3.7high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.5± 2.9high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.4± 3.2high
- LeBron JamesLAL7.2± 2.6high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 1.0high
- Deandre AytonLAL0.9± 0.6high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
Steals
- Marcus SmartLAL2.1± 1.8high
- Cason WallaceOKC2.1± 1.0high
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands