OKC
64-18
LAL
53-29
56.4%
OKC wins · current
Pre-game: 51.1% LAL
OKC 49 · 45 LAL
OKC +4
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2Key moments · live
newest firstThe receipts
-2.99
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+310
Close price
+370
Open no-vig
23.4%
Close no-vig
20.4%
Market faded the model hard
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 16 players in cohort
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
14
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
LAL · top performer
Austin Reaves
G · #15
15
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · Box score
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 15 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 19 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +15 | |
| 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| Team | 49 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 7 | ||
| DNP: K. Williams, N. Topic | ||||||||
LAL
53-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | |
TOUCHES78.985 DRIVES8.358 DEFL2.552 | ||||||||
| 22 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
CONT6.576 TOUCHES44.320 DRIVES3.818 | ||||||||
| 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +5 | |
| 21 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | |
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| Team | 45 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8 | ||
| DNP: M. Kleber, J. LaRavia, D. Knecht, N. Smith Jr., B. James | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
39
8
Ast
5
Playoff series
OKC leads series 3-0
LAL90@OKC108LAL107@OKC125OKC131@LAL108OKC@LALtodayLAL@OKCupcomingOKC@LALupcomingLAL@OKCupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -12.5
Between 10 and —
Total
214.5
Defensive · -11.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
OKC-57585%LAL+42519%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Live · top performers so far
HalftimeEnd of the 2nd Quarter
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GLeading · Halftime · 19 min
14 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
On pace: 35 PTS · 3 REB · 10 AST
LALA. Reaves
GLeading · Halftime · 21 min
15 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 34 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
How it's going
OKC lead LAL 49-45 (Halftime). S. Gilgeous-Alexander led with 14 PTS, 1 REB, 4 AST. OKC have outscored the other side 28-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST
GS 28
Bench(6)
14 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 7
LALstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST
GS 21
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIsaiah Hartenstein · steps out of bounds turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 21 | 28 | 49 |
| LAL | 26 | 19 | 45 |
Shooting comparison
44%
19-43
FG
39%
15-38
33%
6-18
3PT
15%
2-13
83%
5-6
FT
93%
13-14
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
LAL
Home
19-43
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
15-38
44
FG %
39
6-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-13
5-6
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-14
8
Assists
5
7
Turnovers
8
Betting line
OKC -12.5·O/U 214.5·OKC -575/LAL +425
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
12.5
+1.0 since open
Total
214.5
+3.0 since open
Win probability
LAL vs OKC
Period scoring
OKC won 1 · LAL won 1
Q1
Dort 6
Reaves 8
Q2
Gilgeous-Alexander 8
Reaves 7
Play-by-play · 237 plays
End of the 2nd Quarter
OKC 49·LAL 45
−1pp
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Jared McCain
·
OKC 49·LAL 45
Alex Caruso enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
·
OKC 49·LAL 45
Austin Reaves enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
OKC 49·LAL 45
Luke Kennard enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
OKC 49·LAL 45
Ajay Mitchell out of bounds bad pass turnover
OKC 49·LAL 45
+3pp
Jaxson Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 49·LAL 45
−2pp
Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 49·LAL 44
Jared McCain enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 49·LAL 44
Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Austin Reaves
·
OKC 49·LAL 44
Jaxson Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 49·LAL 44
+0.7pp
Isaiah Hartenstein loose ball foul
OKC 49·LAL 43
+4pp
Lakers offensive team rebound
OKC 49·LAL 43
+2pp
Austin Reaves misses 26-foot three point jumper
OKC 49·LAL 43
Isaiah Hartenstein lane violation
OKC 49·LAL 43
−2pp
Lakers defensive team rebound
OKC 49·LAL 43
Isaiah Hartenstein misses free throw 2 of 2
OKC 49·LAL 43
+4pp
Marcus Smart enters the game for Luke Kennard
·
OKC 49·LAL 43
Isaiah Hartenstein makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 49·LAL 43
−0.6pp
Rui Hachimura loose ball foul
OKC 48·LAL 43
−3pp
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 48·LAL 43
−2pp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 48·LAL 43
+2pp
LeBron James makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
·
OKC 48·LAL 43
+2pp
Chet Holmgren makes alley oop layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
OKC 48·LAL 41
−2pp
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
OKC 46·LAL 41
Austin Reaves misses free throw 2 of 2
OKC 46·LAL 41
−5pp
Cason Wallace enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
OKC 46·LAL 41
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 46·LAL 41
+0.6pp
Ajay Mitchell personal foul
OKC 46·LAL 40
+4pp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 46·LAL 40
−2pp
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.8%
ensemble · LAL favored
Elo Static
51.1%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
55.3%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
51.9%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.82 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
