Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OKC at LAL?

The model favors LAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5OKC

OKC

64-18

115110

LAL

53-29

NBAMon, May 11FinalSeriesOKC wins series 4-0VegasOKC -12.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Rui Hachimura

F · #28

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 40.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	28	5	2-4	—	1-2	+30	10	5
C. HolmgrenC · #7	35	16	6-9	0-2	4-4	+1	9	0
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	39	35	11-22	1-4	12-15	-7	1	8
L. DortG · #5	31	6	2-6	2-5	—	-1	2	0
A. MitchellG · #25	33	28	12-19	1-4	3-3	+17	3	4
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	9	0	—	—	—	-13	1	0
A. CarusoG · #9	22	9	3-7	3-5	—	+7	4	1
I. JoeG · #11	7	0	0-2	0-2	—	-12	0	1
A. WigginsG · #21	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. WallaceG · #22	19	3	1-2	1-1	—	-24	2	0
J. McCainG · #3	16	13	5-10	3-8	—	+27	2	0
Team		115	42-81	11-31	20-24		34	19
DNP: K. Williams, N. Topic

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	40	24	8-18	2-6	6-8	-17	12	3
R. HachimuraF · #28	43	25	9-15	4-8	3-3	-2	5	2
D. AytonC · #5	21	6	3-3	—	—	-2	3	1
M. SmartG · #36	36	5	2-8	0-4	1-1	+5	2	3
A. ReavesG · #15	43	27	8-16	3-7	8-9	-6	7	6
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	3	0	0-1	—	—	-12	1	0
A. ThieroF · #1	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	0
J. HayesC · #11	27	18	6-8	—	6-6	-1	5	1
L. KennardG · #10	24	5	2-5	1-2	—	+15	2	2
Team		110	38-75	10-28	24-27		37	18
DNP: J. LaRavia, D. Knecht, N. Smith Jr., B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

42-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-75

FG %

11-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-28

20-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-27

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC wins series 4-0

May 6

LAL90@

OKC108

May 8

LAL107@

OKC125

May 10

OKC131@

LAL108

May 12

OKC115@

LAL110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

OKC-57585%

LAL+42519%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -12.5↗SpreadBet OKC -12.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

+1.0 since open

Total

214.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat LAL 115-110. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 35 points and 8 assists. OKC outscored the other side 28-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 77

Bench(6)

25 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST

GS 14

LALstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL4th Quarter · 1:41 · 109-106

+16pp→ 31% WP

Chet Holmgren · shooting foul

LAL4th Quarter · 40.9 · 109-109

+18pp→ 62% WP

Chet Holmgren · shooting foul

OKC4th Quarter · 12.2 · 111-110

+17pp→ 88% WP

Austin Reaves · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	21	28	31	35	115
LAL	26	19	39	26	110

Period scoring

OKC won 2 · LAL won 2

Dort 6

Reaves 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 8

Reaves 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 12

Hartenstein 26

Mitchell 10

Hachimura 9

OKC

LAL

Shooting comparison

OKC

LAL

52%

42-81

51%

38-75

35%

11-31

3PT

36%

10-28

83%

20-24

89%

24-27

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 115·LAL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 115·LAL 110
Q4·0.8
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
OKC 115·LAL 110
Q4·1.6
Austin Reaves misses tip shot
OKC 115·LAL 110
Q4·1.6
Austin Reaves offensive rebound
OKC 115·LAL 110
Q4·3.5
Marcus Smart misses 24-foot three point jumper
OKC 115·LAL 110
−2pp
Q4·4.2
Chet Holmgren enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
OKC 115·LAL 110
Q4·6.4
Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 115·LAL 110
+1pp
Q4·6.4
Cason Wallace enters the game for Jared McCain
·
OKC 114·LAL 110
Q4·6.4
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
OKC 114·LAL 110
Q4·6.4
Luke Kennard enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
OKC 114·LAL 110
Q4·6.4
Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 114·LAL 110
Q4·6.4
Rui Hachimura personal take foul
OKC 113·LAL 110
−4pp
Q4·7.6
Jared McCain enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·7.6
Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·7.6
Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Maxi Kleber
·
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·7.6
Rui Hachimura enters the game for Luke Kennard
·
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·7.6
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·7.6
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
OKC 113·LAL 110
−2pp
Q4·8.3
Austin Reaves misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
OKC 113·LAL 110
−9pp
Q4·12.2
Cason Wallace enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·12.2
Maxi Kleber enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·12.2
Luke Kennard enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·12.2
Lakers Full timeout
OKC 113·LAL 110
Q4·12.2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
OKC 113·LAL 110
+7pp
Q4·12.2
Chet Holmgren enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
·
OKC 112·LAL 110
Q4·12.2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 112·LAL 110
−2pp
Q4·12.2
Austin Reaves personal take foulBIG MOMENT
OKC 111·LAL 110
−17pp
Q4·17.7
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
OKC 111·LAL 110
−4pp
Q4·20.3
LeBron James misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
OKC 111·LAL 110
−11pp

Betting line

OKC -12.5·O/U 214.5·OKC -575/LAL +425

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 115–110. Decided by 5.

LAL +12.5 cashed (OKC won by 5). Total cleared the 214.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 10 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897
Isaiah HartensteinOKC · C
DEFL2.789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.9%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(LAL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
47.8%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
53.6%
P(LAL win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.99

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+310

Close price

+370

Open no-vig

23.4%

Close no-vig

20.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OKC at LAL?: The model favors LAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

LAL vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Matisse ThybulleLAL
1.7± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

LAL

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

25.7

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Team pages

Oklahoma City ThunderLos Angeles Lakers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Pistons103Cavaliers112Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR