LAL
53-29
HOU
52-30
Recap · NBA
os Angeles Lakers went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 98–78. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
LAL +5.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 203.5 by 27.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAL · top performer
LeBron James
F · #23
28
Pts
7
Reb
8
Ast
HOU · top performer
Amen Thompson
G · #1
18
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 28 | 10-25 | 2-5 | 6-8 | +26 | 7 | 8 | |
| 35 | 21 | 8-15 | 5-7 | — | +20 | 6 | 2 | |
| 28 | 7 | 2-6 | — | 3-7 | +5 | 16 | 1 | |
| 35 | 7 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | +25 | 7 | 1 | |
| 31 | 15 | 7-14 | 0-4 | 1-1 | +3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-2 | — | +2 | 5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1-1 | — | 0-2 | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 5 | 1-1 | — | 3-4 | +21 | 4 | 1 | |
| 29 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-2 | — | +22 | 3 | 3 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 98 | 36-89 | 12-28 | 14-24 | 54 | 19 | ||
| DNP: M. Kleber, J. Vanderbilt | ||||||||
DNP: M. Kleber, J. Vanderbilt
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 42 | 9 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 2-3 | -24 | 12 | 3 | |
| 37 | 14 | 5-14 | 2-7 | 2-2 | -14 | 5 | 2 | |
| 38 | 17 | 5-12 | — | 7-10 | -27 | 11 | 1 | |
| 45 | 18 | 7-14 | — | 4-6 | -26 | 8 | 3 | |
| 36 | 10 | 4-19 | 1-10 | 1-1 | -24 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -13 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | +10 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +4 | 1 | 2 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +7 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 78 | 28-80 | 5-28 | 17-24 | 45 | 13 | ||
| DNP: J. Green | ||||||||
DNP: J. Green
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
35
19
Ast
13
Playoff series
LAL win series 4-2
HOU98@LAL107HOU94@LAL101LAL112@HOU108LAL96@HOU115HOU99@LAL93LAL98@HOU78todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
HOU -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
203.5
Defensive · -22.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAL+16038%HOU-19266%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 150 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+2.0 since open
Total
203.5
-2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:48
LALL. James
FGame leader · 37 min
28 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST
HOUA. Thompson
GGame leader · 45 min
18 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
LAL beat HOU 98-78. L. James paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST. LAL outscored the other side 26-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
HOU vs LAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitLALstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 39 REB · 14 AST
GS 60
Bench(7)
20 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST
GS 15
HOUstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 36 REB · 10 AST
GS 42
Bench(6)
10 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJosh Okogie · offensive charge
Jake LaRavia · misses 23-foot three point jumper
Marcus Smart · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 23 | 26 | 22 | 27 | 98 |
| HOU | 18 | 13 | 24 | 23 | 78 |
Period scoring
LAL won 3 · HOU won 1
Q1
Hachimura 7
Eason 7
Q2
James 14
Kennard 7
Q3
Reaves 8
Thompson 10
Q4
James 6
Sheppard 5
Shooting comparison
40%
36-89
FG
35%
28-80
43%
12-28
3PT
18%
5-28
58%
14-24
FT
71%
17-24
Play-by-play · 490 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 98·HOU 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 98·HOU 78
- Q4·21.3
Clint Capela makes two point shot
LAL 98·HOU 78
- Q4·21.3
Clint Capela offensive rebound
LAL 98·HOU 76
- Q4·23.6
Jae'Sean Tate misses running pullup jump shot
LAL 98·HOU 76
- Q4·28.0
Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
LAL 98·HOU 76
- Q4·29.2
Nick Smith Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper
LAL 98·HOU 76
- Q4·50.3
Aaron Holiday makes driving layup
LAL 98·HOU 76
- Q4·1:05
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
LAL 98·HOU 74
- Q4·1:05
Dalton Knecht misses 26-foot three point jumper
LAL 98·HOU 74
- Q4·1:08
Jake LaRavia offensive rebound
LAL 98·HOU 74
- Q4·1:09
Jake LaRavia misses tip shot
LAL 98·HOU 74
- Q4·1:10
Jake LaRavia offensive rebound
LAL 98·HOU 74
- Q4·1:11
Jake LaRavia misses two point shot
LAL 98·HOU 74
- Q4·1:19
Jae'Sean Tate makes running layup
LAL 98·HOU 74
- Q4·1:23
Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound
LAL 98·HOU 72
- Q4·1:24
Nick Smith Jr. misses 14-foot step back jumpshot
LAL 98·HOU 72
- Q4·1:46
Josh Okogie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)
·
LAL 98·HOU 72
- Q4·1:51
Adou Thiero personal foul
LAL 98·HOU 69
- Q4·1:58
Adou Thiero makes tip in dunk
LAL 98·HOU 69
- Q4·1:58
Adou Thiero offensive rebound
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·1:59
Bronny James misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·2:07
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·2:07
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Tari Eason
·
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·2:07
Clint Capela enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·2:07
JD Davison enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.
·
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·2:07
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·2:12
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·2:14
Reed Sheppard misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 96·HOU 69
- Q4·2:25
Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Bronny James assists)
· ·
LAL 96·HOU 69
Team stats
LAL
Away
Stat
HOU
Home
36-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-80
40
FG %
35
12-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-28
14-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-24
19
Assists
13
10
Turnovers
11
Betting line
HOU -5.5·O/U 203.5·LAL +160/HOU -192
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Reed SheppardHOU · GDEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · FDEFL4.599
Deandre AytonLAL · CCONT10.399
Marcus SmartLAL · GDEFL4.398- Amen ThompsonHOU · GTOUCHES86.297
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.4%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
60.6%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
60.8%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
60.5%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.12 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs LAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Kevin DurantHOU25.3± 4.5high
- LeBron JamesLAL22.2± 5.8high
Rebounds
- Alperen SengunHOU9.4± 3.5high
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Steven AdamsHOU8.6± 2.2high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- LeBron JamesLAL7.2± 2.6high
- Kevin DurantHOU5.8± 2.2high
Blocks
- Alperen SengunHOU1.1± 0.7high
- Kevin DurantHOU1.0± 1.1high
- Deandre AytonLAL0.9± 0.6high
Steals
- Marcus SmartLAL2.1± 1.8high
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Amen ThompsonHOU1.9± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAL
league avg
HOU
57.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.7%
49.9%
FG%
47.0
47.4%
114.8
PPG
114.9
114.1
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.1
14.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3