Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAL at OKC?

The model favors LAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18OKC

LAL

53-29

90108

OKC

64-18

NBATue, May 5FinalSeriesOKC wins series 4-0VegasOKC -15.5

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

23.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Chet Holmgren

C · #7

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 2:18

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	36	27	12-17	3-6	0-1	-6	4	6
R. HachimuraF · #28	37	18	7-13	3-6	1-2	-21	2	2
D. AytonC · #5	27	10	5-12	—	—	-4	12	2
M. SmartG · #36	32	12	4-15	2-8	2-2	-10	4	7
A. ReavesG · #15	36	8	3-16	0-5	2-2	-10	5	6
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	6	2	1-2	0-1	—	-4	1	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	14	3	1-2	1-1	—	-9	1	0
D. KnechtF · #4	2	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
A. ThieroF · #1	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. HayesC · #11	16	3	1-3	—	1-2	-12	6	1
L. KennardG · #10	29	7	1-4	1-3	4-4	-14	5	1
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	2	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
B. JamesG · #9	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
Team		90	35-85	10-30	10-13		41	26
DNP: M. Kleber

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	25	8	3-3	—	2-2	+5	9	4
C. HolmgrenC · #7	31	24	9-17	2-2	4-4	+10	12	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	35	18	8-15	0-1	2-3	+9	2	6
L. DortG · #5	28	6	2-5	2-5	—	+2	3	4
A. MitchellG · #25	28	18	7-16	1-5	3-3	+14	2	4
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	20	3	1-3	1-2	—	+11	7	3
A. CarusoG · #9	20	5	2-5	1-4	—	+15	2	2
K. WilliamsG · #34	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
I. JoeG · #11	11	9	4-6	1-3	—	+11	1	1
A. WigginsG · #21	5	0	0-2	—	—	-2	0	0
C. WallaceG · #22	19	5	2-6	1-3	—	+11	4	2
J. McCainG · #3	15	12	4-7	4-5	—	+4	2	2
Team		108	42-85	13-30	11-12		44	29
DNP: N. Topic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

35-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-85

FG %

10-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-30

10-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-12

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC leads series 1-0

May 6

LAL90@

OKC108today

May 8

LAL107@

OKC125

May 10

OKC131@

LAL108

May 12

OKC115@

LAL110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

212.5

Defensive · -13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL+60014%

OKC-90090%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -15.5↗SpreadBet OKC -15.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

212.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat LAL 108-90. C. Holmgren led with 24 PTS, 12 REB, 1 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 27 REB · 23 AST

GS 57

Bench(8)

15 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST

GS 9

OKCstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST

GS 65

Bench(7)

34 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 30

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	26	27	19	18	90
OKC	31	30	23	24	108

Period scoring

LAL won 0 · OKC won 4

James 12

Holmgren 9

Ayton 6

Holmgren 9

Hachimura 6

Mitchell 8

Hachimura 6

McCain 9

LAL

OKC

Shooting comparison

LAL

OKC

41%

35-85

49%

42-85

33%

10-30

3PT

43%

13-30

77%

10-13

92%

11-12

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 90·OKC 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 90·OKC 108
Q4·20.5
Jake LaRavia makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)
· ·
LAL 90·OKC 108
Q4·41.0
Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)
·
LAL 87·OKC 108
Q4·51.1
shot clock turnover
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:13
Nick Smith Jr. defensive rebound
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:15
Aaron Wiggins misses two point shot
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:26
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:29
Dalton Knecht misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Jake LaRavia enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Adou Thiero enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Austin Reaves
·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Bronny James enters the game for Luke Kennard
· ·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Jared McCain enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
· ·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Jaylin Williams enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
· ·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:45
Isaiah Hartenstein makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
LAL 87·OKC 105
Q4·1:49
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
LAL 87·OKC 103
Q4·1:53
Marcus Smart misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 87·OKC 103
Q4·2:12
Isaiah Hartenstein makes 13-foot two point shot (Luguentz Dort assists)
·
LAL 87·OKC 103
Q4·2:39
LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)
· ·
LAL 87·OKC 101
Q4·2:50
shot clock turnover
LAL 84·OKC 101
Q4·2:50
Thunder offensive team rebound
LAL 84·OKC 101
Q4·2:51
Ajay Mitchell misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 84·OKC 101
Q4·3:05
Rui Hachimura personal foul
LAL 84·OKC 101
Q4·3:14
Marcus Smart enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
LAL 84·OKC 101

Betting line

OKC -15.5·O/U 212.5·LAL +600/OKC -900

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Los Angeles Lakers, 108–90.

OKC -15.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 212.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.1%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
69.4%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
64.9%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
67.7%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+700

Close price

+700

Open no-vig

12.0%

Close no-vig

12.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAL at OKC?: The model favors LAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

OKC vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
LeBron JamesLAL
22.2± 5.8high

Rebounds

Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
LeBron JamesLAL
7.2± 2.6high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Deandre AytonLAL
0.9± 0.6high
Branden CarlsonOKC
0.9± 1.6high

Steals

Marcus SmartLAL
2.1± 1.8high
Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

OKC

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.9%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.2%

114.8

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

25.8

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR