5:04 - 1ST+1LAL
LAL
53-29
1817
OKC
64-18
Live · model lean5:04 - 1stPolls every 30s
54.0%
OKC wins · current
Pre-game: 61.5% OKC
LAL 18 · 17 OKC
LAL +1
LAL
53-29
OKC
64-18
54.0%
OKC wins · current
Pre-game: 61.5% OKC
LAL 18 · 17 OKC
LAL +1
Live · model intelligence
63% confidence
Win prob · home
56.5%
Leverage
46
medium
1-point game
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.
LAL · top performer
LeBron James
F · #23
10
Pts
0
Reb
0
Ast
OKC · top performer
Chet Holmgren
C · #7
7
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
Tonight's box score
LAL · OKC
LAL
53-29
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | GMSC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6.0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | |
| Team | 18 | 6 | 4 | — | |
| DNP: M. Kleber, J. Vanderbilt, J. LaRavia, D. Knecht, A. Thiero, J. Hayes, N. Smith Jr., B. James | |||||
OKC
64-18
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | GMSC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | |
| 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 6.3 | |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2.7 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.7 | |
| Team | 17 | 6 | 4 | — | |
| DNP: A. Caruso, K. Williams, I. Joe, A. Wiggins, J. McCain, N. Topic | |||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
54
FG %
60
4
Ast
4
Playoff series
LAL@OKCtodayLAL@OKCupcomingOKC@LALupcomingOKC@LALupcomingLAL@OKCupcomingOKC@LALupcomingLAL@OKCupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -15.5
Between 10 and —
Total
212.5
Defensive · -13.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAL+60014%OKC-90090%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
15.5
0.0 since open
Total
212.5
0.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
5:04 - 1stShai Gilgeous-Alexander · lost ball turnover (Deandre Ayton steals)
LALL. James
FLeading · 5:04 - 1st · 6 min
10 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
On pace: 80 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
OKCC. Holmgren
CLeading · 5:04 - 1st · 6 min
7 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 56 PTS · 24 REB · 8 AST
How it's going
LAL lead OKC 18-17 (5:04 - 1st). L. James led with 10 PTS, 0 REB, 0 AST.
Win probability
OKC vs LAL
Score progression
2 lead changes
Starters vs bench
production by unitLALstarters 100% of ptsStarters(5)
18 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
GS 17
Bench(1)
0 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST
OKCstarters 100% of ptsStarters(5)
17 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
GS 14
Bench(2)
0 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST
GS 0
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | T |
|---|---|---|
| LAL | 18 | 18 |
| OKC | 17 | 17 |
Shooting comparison
54%
7-13
FG
60%
6-10
50%
2-4
3PT
67%
2-3
67%
2-3
FT
75%
3-4
Game flow · key plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses free throw 2 of 2
LAL 18·OKC 17
−3pp
LeBron James makes 23-foot three pointer (Marcus Smart assists)
LAL 14·OKC 12
−4pp
Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)
LAL 11·OKC 12
+4pp
Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)
LAL 7·OKC 3
+4pp
LeBron James makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot
LAL 7·OKC 0
−4pp
LeBron James misses free throw 1 of 1
LAL 2·OKC 0
+3pp
Team stats
LAL
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
7-13
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
6-10
54
FG %
60
2-4
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-3
2-3
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
3-4
4
Assists
4
2
Turnovers
2
Betting line
OKC -15.5·O/U 212.5·LAL +600/OKC -900
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+700
Close price
+700
Open no-vig
12.0%
Close no-vig
12.0%
Line barely moved
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.4%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
61.5%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
57.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
59.6%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.84 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
