Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OKC at LAL?

The model favors LAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23OKC

OKC

64-18

131108

LAL

53-29

NBASat, May 9FinalSeriesOKC wins series 4-0VegasOKC -9.5

OKC · top performer

Ajay Mitchell

G · #25

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Rui Hachimura

F · #28

18.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 11:14

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	31	12	6-7	—	—	+26	9	2
C. HolmgrenC · #7	31	18	9-14	0-4	—	+18	9	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	33	23	7-20	3-7	6-7	+24	4	9
L. DortG · #5	20	10	4-5	2-2	—	+21	3	0
A. MitchellG · #25	30	24	10-17	2-4	2-3	+14	4	10
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	13	3	1-2	1-2	—	0	4	2
A. CarusoG · #9	20	6	3-6	0-3	—	+11	2	2
K. WilliamsG · #34	3	0	0-2	0-2	—	-1	0	0
I. JoeG · #11	18	12	4-7	4-6	—	-2	5	2
A. WigginsG · #21	3	4	2-2	—	—	-1	0	0
C. WallaceG · #22	25	16	6-10	4-6	—	+13	1	1
J. McCainG · #3	10	3	1-1	1-1	—	-6	0	1
N. TopicG · #44	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	2	0
Team		131	53-94	17-38	8-10		43	30

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	37	19	7-19	2-6	3-4	-24	6	8
R. HachimuraF · #28	39	21	7-14	5-8	2-2	-24	5	4
D. AytonC · #5	24	10	5-9	—	—	-8	6	0
M. SmartG · #36	32	10	3-7	1-2	3-4	-22	3	3
A. ReavesG · #15	39	17	5-13	1-5	6-8	-23	3	9
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	8	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	1
D. KnechtF · #4	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	0	1	3
A. ThieroF · #1	13	4	1-3	0-1	2-3	0	8	1
J. HayesC · #11	9	1	—	—	1-2	-5	2	0
L. KennardG · #10	29	18	7-10	4-6	—	-8	2	2
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	4	6	2-2	1-1	1-2	0	0	0
B. JamesG · #9	4	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
Team		108	38-81	14-30	18-25		37	31
DNP: J. Vanderbilt, J. LaRavia

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

53-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-81

FG %

17-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-30

8-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-25

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC leads series 3-0

May 6

LAL90@

OKC108

May 8

LAL107@

OKC125

May 10

OKC131@

LAL108today

May 12

OKC115@

LAL110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

210.5

Defensive · -15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-38079%

LAL+30025%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -9.5↗SpreadBet OKC -9.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

210.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat LAL 131-108. A. Mitchell led with 24 PTS, 4 REB, 10 AST. OKC outscored the other side 33-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 29 REB · 22 AST

GS 81

Bench(8)

44 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 39

LALstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 23 REB · 24 AST

GS 59

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL2nd Quarter · 3:01 · 49-54

+7pp→ 52% WP

Luke Kennard · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)

OKC3rd Quarter · 11:14 · 60-59

+7pp→ 64% WP

Luguentz Dort · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)

OKC3rd Quarter · 10:34 · 63-61

+7pp→ 67% WP

Ajay Mitchell · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	31	26	33	41	131
LAL	25	34	20	29	108

Period scoring

OKC won 3 · LAL won 1

Wallace 11

Hachimura 9

Gilgeous-Alexander 9

Reaves 11

Mitchell 9

Ayton 6

Mitchell 9

James 7

OKC

LAL

Shooting comparison

OKC

LAL

56%

53-94

47%

38-81

45%

17-38

3PT

47%

14-30

80%

8-10

72%

18-25

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 131·LAL 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 131·LAL 108
Q4·19.9
Nick Smith Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot (Dalton Knecht assists)
·
OKC 131·LAL 108
Q4·31.0
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·35.7
Kenrich Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper
·
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·37.6
Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·40.7
Kenrich Williams misses 27-foot running jump shot
·
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·44.7
Nikola Topic defensive rebound
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·46.9
Maxi Kleber misses alley oop layup
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·54.8
Adou Thiero defensive rebound
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·57.1
Nikola Topic misses 24-foot three point jumper
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·1:12
Nikola Topic defensive rebound
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·1:15
Nick Smith Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·1:15
Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 131·LAL 106
Q4·1:15
Isaiah Joe shooting foul
OKC 131·LAL 105
Q4·1:19
Nikola Topic bad pass turnover (Nick Smith Jr. steals)
·
OKC 131·LAL 105
Q4·1:23
Bronny James lost ball turnover (Nikola Topic steals)
· ·
OKC 131·LAL 105
Q4·1:29
Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)
·
OKC 131·LAL 105
Q4·1:40
Adou Thiero makes free throw 1 of 1
OKC 128·LAL 105
Q4·1:40
Kenrich Williams shooting foul
·
OKC 128·LAL 104
Q4·1:40
Adou Thiero makes 1-foot layup (Maxi Kleber assists)
·
OKC 128·LAL 104
Q4·1:40
Maxi Kleber offensive rebound
OKC 128·LAL 102
Q4·1:40
Dalton Knecht misses 24-foot three point jumper
OKC 128·LAL 102
Q4·1:51
Aaron Wiggins makes driving layup
OKC 128·LAL 102
Q4·2:07
Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot jump bank shot (Dalton Knecht assists)
·
OKC 126·LAL 102
Q4·2:27
Aaron Wiggins makes 13-foot fade away jump shot
OKC 126·LAL 99
Q4·2:38
Nikola Topic enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
OKC 124·LAL 99
Q4·2:53
Bronny James makes driving layup (Dalton Knecht assists)
· ·
OKC 124·LAL 99
Q4·3:13
Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)
· ·
OKC 124·LAL 97
Q4·3:22
Jared McCain enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 121·LAL 97

Betting line

OKC -9.5·O/U 210.5·OKC -380/LAL +300

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 131–108. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

OKC -9.5 cashed (won by 23). Total cleared the 210.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.0%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(LAL win)
67%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(LAL win)
17%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(LAL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.37

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+260

Close price

+295

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

24.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OKC at LAL?: The model favors LAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

LAL

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.8

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

25.7

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR