OKC
64-18
LAL
53-29
56.0%
LAL wins · current
Pre-game: 54.9% LAL
OKC 57 · 59 LAL
LAL +2
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2Key moments · live
newest firstThe receipts
-2.37
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+260
Close price
+295
Open no-vig
26.6%
Close no-vig
24.3%
Market faded the model hard
OKC · top performer
Chet Holmgren
C · #7
12
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
LAL · top performer
Rui Hachimura
F · #28
16
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Box score
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 I. Hartenstein★C · #55 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| C. Holmgren★C · #7 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 |
 S. Gilgeous-Alexander★G · #2 | 18 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 |
 L. Dort★G · #5 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
 A. Mitchell★G · #25 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
 Jay. WilliamsF · #6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 A. CarusoG · #9 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. WallaceG · #22 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| Team | 57 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 6 | ||
| DNP: K. Williams, A. Wiggins, N. Topic | ||||||||
LAL
53-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 L. James★F · #23 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 |
| R. Hachimura★F · #28 | 20 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 D. Ayton★C · #5 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
 M. Smart★G · #36 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Reaves★G · #15 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 |
 L. KennardG · #10 | 18 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
| Team | 59 | 21 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 8 | ||
| DNP: J. Vanderbilt, J. LaRavia, D. Knecht, N. Smith Jr., B. James | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
48
11
Ast
16
Playoff series
OKC leads series 2-0
LAL90@OKC108LAL107@OKC125OKC@LALtodayOKC@LALupcomingLAL@OKCupcomingOKC@LALupcomingLAL@OKCupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
210.5
Defensive · -15.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-38079%LAL+30025%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
0.0 since open
Total
210.5
+1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
HalftimeRecent swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 13.5
End of the 2nd Quarter
OKCC. Holmgren
CLeading · Halftime · 18 min
12 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 32 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
LALR. Hachimura
FLeading · Halftime · 20 min
16 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
On pace: 38 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
How it's going
LAL lead OKC 59-57 (Halftime). R. Hachimura led with 16 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST. LAL have outscored the other side 34-26 in the 2nd quarter.
Win probability
LAL vs OKC
Score progression
4 lead changes
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
38 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 27
Bench(5)
19 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 22
LALstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST
GS 38
Bench(4)
14 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLuke Kennard · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 31 | 26 | 57 |
| LAL | 25 | 34 | 59 |
Period scoring
OKC won 1 · LAL won 1
Q1
Wallace 11
Hachimura 9
Q2
Gilgeous-Alexander 9
Reaves 11
Shooting comparison
51%
23-45
FG
48%
20-42
33%
6-18
3PT
55%
11-20
83%
5-6
FT
73%
8-11
Play-by-play · 225 plays
End of the 2nd Quarter
OKC 57·LAL 59
+2pp
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 57·LAL 59
−3pp
Chet Holmgren misses 23-foot three point shot
OKC 57·LAL 59
+3pp
Deandre Ayton makes 3-foot dunk
OKC 57·LAL 59
+3pp
Deandre Ayton offensive rebound
OKC 57·LAL 57
+3pp
Austin Reaves misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
OKC 57·LAL 57
−6pp
Jared McCain enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
OKC 57·LAL 57
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 57·LAL 57
+0.8pp
Cason Wallace shooting foul
OKC 57·LAL 56
+5pp
Ajay Mitchell makes driving layup
OKC 57·LAL 56
−3pp
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 55·LAL 56
−3pp
Marcus Smart enters the game for Luke Kennard
·
OKC 55·LAL 55
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 55·LAL 55
+0.8pp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul
OKC 55·LAL 54
+5pp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 17-foot step back jumpshot
OKC 55·LAL 54
−3pp
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
OKC 53·LAL 54
−0.9pp
LeBron James misses 5-foot two point shot
·
OKC 53·LAL 54
−2pp
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
OKC 53·LAL 54
+0.8pp
Alex Caruso misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 53·LAL 54
+3pp
LeBron James bad pass turnover (Alex Caruso steals)
· ·
OKC 53·LAL 54
−3pp
Chet Holmgren enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
·
OKC 53·LAL 54
LeBron James enters the game for Marcus Smart
· ·
OKC 53·LAL 54
−3pp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 53·LAL 54
+2pp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 52·LAL 54
−0.8pp
Marcus Smart shooting foul
OKC 51·LAL 54
−5pp
Austin Reaves lost ball turnover (Alex Caruso steals)
·
OKC 51·LAL 54
−4pp
Alex Caruso makes running layup
OKC 51·LAL 54
−3pp
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
OKC 49·LAL 54
−0.8pp
Marcus Smart misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 49·LAL 54
−2pp
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
OKC 49·LAL 54
+0.8pp
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
LAL
Home
23-45
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
20-42
51
FG %
48
6-18
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-20
5-6
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-11
11
Assists
16
6
Turnovers
8
Betting line
OKC -9.5·O/U 210.5·OKC -380/LAL +300
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.9%
ensemble · LAL favored
Elo Static
54.9%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
59.4%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
56.4%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.87 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen