HOU
45-29
NO
25-51
Recap · NBA
ouston Rockets went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 134–102. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
HOU -5.5 cashed (won by 32). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 9.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
HOU · top performer
Alperen Sengun
C · #28
36
Pts
13
Reb
7
Ast
NO · top performer
Dejounte Murray
G · #5
19
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
NBA · Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 20 | 7-16 | 1-7 | 5-5 | +1 | 4 | 6 | |
| 33 | 20 | 7-15 | 4-9 | 2-2 | +16 | 4 | 3 | |
| 32 | 36 | 12-23 | 5-7 | 7-8 | +26 | 13 | 7 | |
| 35 | 14 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 4-6 | +32 | 8 | 5 | |
| 21 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-5 | — | -10 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | — | +27 | 2 | 0 | |
| 22 | 15 | 6-12 | 3-5 | — | +15 | 8 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 6 | 3-6 | — | — | +6 | 14 | 3 | |
| 25 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-7 | — | +41 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | +4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 134 | 49-105 | 18-44 | 18-21 | 59 | 33 | ||
| DNP: D. Finney-Smith | ||||||||
DNP: D. Finney-Smith
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 10 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | -5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 25 | 18 | 6-8 | — | 6-8 | -11 | 4 | 3 | |
| 31 | 8 | 2-4 | — | 4-8 | -5 | 5 | 1 | |
| 28 | 19 | 8-14 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -3 | 4 | 6 | |
| 31 | 18 | 7-13 | 4-6 | — | -7 | 7 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -5 | 4 | 0 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | — | -25 | 3 | 0 | |
| 24 | 13 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 2-4 | -35 | 3 | 1 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -16 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -18 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 12 | 4-14 | 1-4 | 3-4 | -26 | 2 | 5 | |
| Team | 102 | 37-86 | 9-29 | 19-28 | 36 | 19 | ||
| DNP: D. Jordan | ||||||||
DNP: D. Jordan
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
43
33
Ast
19
Season series
HOU wins series 3-1
HOU128@NO133NO110@HOU119NO105@HOU107HOU134@NO102todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
HOU -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
HOU-25071%NO+20533%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:12
HOUA. Sengun
CGame leader · 32 min30-point game
36 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST
NOD. Murray
GGame leader · 28 min
19 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
HOU beat NO 134-102. A. Sengun led the way with 36 points and 13 rebounds. HOU outscored the other side 39-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NO vs HOU
Starters vs bench
production by unitHOUstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
96 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST
GS 94
Bench(7)
38 PTS · 28 REB · 10 AST
GS 37
NOstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST
GS 59
Bench(7)
29 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKarlo Matkovic · lost ball turnover (Alperen Sengun steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 29 | 39 | 33 | 33 | 134 |
| NO | 29 | 18 | 33 | 22 | 102 |
Period scoring
HOU won 2 · NO won 0
Q1
Durant 8
Bey 8
Q2
Sengun 14
Murray 6
Q3
Thompson 8
Williamson 10
Q4
Sengun 13
Fears 12
Shooting comparison
47%
49-105
FG
43%
37-86
41%
18-44
3PT
31%
9-29
86%
18-21
FT
68%
19-28
Play-by-play · 484 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 134·NO 102
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 134·NO 102
- Q4·11.2
Clint Capela defensive rebound
HOU 134·NO 102
- Q4·13.5
Jeremiah Fears misses driving layup
HOU 134·NO 102
- Q4·22.8
Clint Capela makes running dunk (Josh Okogie assists)
·
HOU 134·NO 102
- Q4·25.1
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
HOU 132·NO 102
- Q4·31.4
Micah Peavy misses 25-foot three point jumper
HOU 132·NO 102
- Q4·41.9
Micah Peavy defensive rebound
HOU 132·NO 102
- Q4·45.5
Isaiah Crawford misses 23-foot three point jumper
HOU 132·NO 102
- Q4·1:09
Jeremiah Fears bad pass turnover (Josh Okogie steals)
·
HOU 132·NO 102
- Q4·1:14
Josh Okogie makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Jeff Green assists)
·
HOU 132·NO 102
- Q4·1:30
Clint Capela defensive rebound
HOU 130·NO 102
- Q4·1:33
Derik Queen misses free throw 2 of 2
HOU 130·NO 102
- Q4·1:33
Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 130·NO 102
- Q4·1:33
Clint Capela loose ball foul
HOU 130·NO 101
- Q4·1:33
Pelicans defensive team rebound
HOU 130·NO 101
- Q4·1:33
Josh Okogie misses driving layup
HOU 130·NO 101
- Q4·1:45
Derik Queen makes 1-foot two point shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)
·
HOU 130·NO 101
- Q4·1:52
Jeff Green makes 22-foot two point shot (Josh Okogie assists)
·
HOU 130·NO 99
- Q4·1:55
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 128·NO 99
- Q4·1:55
Jeremiah Fears blocks Isaiah Crawford 's 21-foot pullup jump shot
·
HOU 128·NO 99
- Q4·2:23
Jordan Hawkins makes 11-foot fade away jump shot
·
HOU 128·NO 99
- Q4·2:31
Isaiah Crawford bad pass turnover (Jeremiah Fears steals)
·
HOU 128·NO 97
- Q4·2:41
Clint Capela defensive rebound
HOU 128·NO 97
- Q4·2:43
Jeremiah Fears misses driving floating jump shot
HOU 128·NO 97
- Q4·2:52
Clint Capela loose ball foul
HOU 128·NO 97
- Q4·2:52
Pelicans defensive team rebound
HOU 128·NO 97
- Q4·2:53
Aaron Holiday misses driving floating jump shot
HOU 128·NO 97
- Q4·3:15
Derik Queen makes layup
HOU 128·NO 97
- Q4·3:28
Derik Queen defensive goaltending violation
HOU 128·NO 95
Team stats
HOU
Away
Stat
NO
Home
49-105
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-86
47
FG %
43
18-44
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-29
18-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-28
33
Assists
19
6
Turnovers
10
Betting line
HOU -5.5·O/U 226.5·HOU -250/NO +205
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Reed SheppardHOU · GDEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · FDEFL4.599
Amen ThompsonHOU · GTOUCHES86.297- Alperen SengunHOU · CCONT8.295
Kevin DurantHOU · FTS%64.190
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NO vs HOU.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Kevin DurantHOU25.3± 4.5high
- Amen ThompsonHOU20.2± 7.7high
- Trey Murphy IIINO20.0± 6.2high
Rebounds
- Alperen SengunHOU9.4± 3.5high
- Steven AdamsHOU8.6± 2.2high
- Derik QueenNO8.1± 5.6high
Assists
- Dejounte MurrayNO6.4± 4.4low
- Kevin DurantHOU5.8± 2.2high
- Amen ThompsonHOU5.7± 2.0high
Blocks
- Yves MissiNO1.8± 1.5high
- Alperen SengunHOU1.1± 0.7high
- Kevin DurantHOU1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Amen ThompsonHOU1.9± 1.3high
- Tari EasonHOU1.8± 1.8high
- Reed SheppardHOU1.6± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
HOU
league avg
NO
53.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.7%
47.4%
FG%
47.0
46.6%
114.1
PPG
114.9
▶115.5
25.1
Assists / G
25.0
25.1
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.5