MIA
39-36
IND
17-58
Recap · NBA
ndiana Pacers held off Miami Heat, 135–118.
IND +8.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 245.5 OVER by 7.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIA · top performer
Tyler Herro
G · #14
31
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
IND · top performer
Pascal Siakam
F · #43
30
Pts
11
Reb
6
Ast
NBA · Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 15 | 5-14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | -13 | 6 | 5 | |
| 33 | 15 | 6-16 | 0-3 | 3-4 | -9 | 12 | 3 | |
| 35 | 12 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -9 | 3 | 8 | |
| 36 | 31 | 12-22 | 5-13 | 2-2 | -11 | 3 | 4 | |
| 36 | 15 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 1-3 | -6 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 7 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 17 | 7-17 | 2-5 | 1-1 | -10 | 8 | 2 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | — | -8 | 3 | 2 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -8 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 118 | 46-99 | 13-37 | 13-18 | 42 | 29 | ||
| DNP: K. Johnson, N. Jovic, N. Powell, D. Smith | ||||||||
DNP: K. Johnson, N. Jovic, N. Powell, D. Smith
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 30 | 11-24 | 3-8 | 5-7 | +12 | 11 | 6 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 36 | 15 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 1-1 | +11 | 3 | 10 | |
| 20 | 10 | 5-6 | — | — | -10 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 12 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | +10 | 2 | 3 | |
| 16 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | — | +17 | 5 | 0 | |
| 20 | 21 | 7-9 | 5-6 | 2-2 | -4 | 5 | 0 | |
| 18 | 15 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 1-1 | +15 | 2 | 9 | |
| 33 | 18 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 1-1 | +23 | 4 | 5 | |
| 23 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | — | +22 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 135 | 53-92 | 18-39 | 11-13 | 42 | 36 | ||
| DNP: K. Jones, T. Peter | ||||||||
DNP: K. Jones, T. Peter
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
58
29
Ast
36
Season series
IND wins series 2-1
IND116@MIA142MIA99@IND123MIA118@IND135todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
245.5
High-scoring · +19.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA-35578%IND+28026%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
245.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 8:48
MIAT. Herro
GGame leader · 36 min30-point game
31 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
INDP. Siakam
FGame leader · 31 min30-point game
30 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
IND beat MIA 135-118. P. Siakam paced them with 30 PTS, 11 REB, 6 AST. IND outscored the other side 27-11 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs MIA
Starters vs bench
production by unitMIAstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 29 REB · 23 AST
GS 76
Bench(5)
30 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
INDstarters 43% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 22 REB · 18 AST
GS 44
Bench(6)
77 PTS · 20 REB · 18 AST
GS 75
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKobe Brown · makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)
Ben Sheppard · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 36 | 39 | 32 | 11 | 118 |
| IND | 34 | 45 | 29 | 27 | 135 |
Period scoring
MIA won 2 · IND won 2
Q1
Herro 16
Potter 14
Q2
Jr. 12
Siakam 17
Q3
Herro 8
Brown 8
Q4
Adebayo 4
Siakam 10
Shooting comparison
46%
46-99
FG
58%
53-92
35%
13-37
3PT
46%
18-39
72%
13-18
FT
85%
11-13
Play-by-play · 445 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 118·IND 135
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 118·IND 135
- Q4·11.9
Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
MIA 118·IND 135
- Q4·14.0
Bam Adebayo misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIA 118·IND 135
- Q4·22.2
Pascal Siakam makes driving layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)
·
MIA 118·IND 135
- Q4·31.4
Andrew Wiggins kicked ball violation
MIA 118·IND 133
- Q4·48.1
Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 118·IND 133
- Q4·48.1
Heat offensive team rebound
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·48.1
Davion Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·48.1
Jay Huff shooting foul
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·58.1
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·1:00
Pascal Siakam misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·1:14
Pacers defensive team rebound
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·1:17
Davion Mitchell misses 26-foot running jump shot
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·1:22
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·1:24
Pascal Siakam misses 14-foot two point shot
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·1:43
Jay Huff defensive rebound
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·1:45
Bam Adebayo misses 6-foot two point shot
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·2:02
Heat Full timeout
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·2:04
Andrew Nembhard makes 24-foot three pointer (Ben Sheppard assists)
·
MIA 117·IND 133
- Q4·2:26
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
MIA 117·IND 130
- Q4·2:28
Bam Adebayo misses driving floating jump shot
MIA 117·IND 130
- Q4·2:36
Pascal Siakam makes 11-foot step back jumpshot
MIA 117·IND 130
- Q4·2:50
Bam Adebayo makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Tyler Herro assists)
·
MIA 117·IND 128
- Q4·3:00
Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 115·IND 128
- Q4·3:00
Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 115·IND 127
- Q4·3:00
Bam Adebayo shooting foul
MIA 115·IND 126
+0.6pp
- Q4·3:05
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
MIA 115·IND 126
- Q4·3:06
Davion Mitchell misses two point shot
MIA 115·IND 126
+0.7pp
- Q4·3:22
Jay Huff makes 20-foot jumper (Kobe Brown assists)
·
MIA 115·IND 126
+1pp
Team stats
MIA
Away
Stat
IND
Home
46-99
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
53-92
46
FG %
58
13-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
18-39
13-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-13
29
Assists
36
7
Turnovers
11
Betting line
MIA -8.5·O/U 245.5·MIA -355/IND +280
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Tyler HerroMIA19.2± 8.0high
- Bam AdebayoMIA18.4± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Ivica ZubacIND9.5± 4.1high
- Kel'el WareMIA8.8± 6.0high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
- T.J. McConnellIND6.2± 3.1high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Kel'el WareMIA1.3± 2.5high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.0± 1.4medium
Steals
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
IND
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
45.8%
120.9
PPG
114.9
112.4
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
27.7
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.8