ORL
39-35
TOR
42-32
Recap · NBA
oronto Raptors held off Orlando Magic, 139–87. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 52). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ORL · top performer
Desmond Bane
G · #3
17
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
TOR · top performer
Scottie Barnes
F · #4
23
Pts
5
Reb
15
Ast
NBA · Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 9 | 3-14 | 0-5 | 3-4 | -30 | 5 | 3 | |
| 25 | 12 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 3-3 | -17 | 3 | 0 | |
| 26 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -23 | 4 | 1 | |
| 27 | 17 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 5-6 | -25 | 3 | 2 | |
| 26 | 13 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 1-1 | -16 | 4 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | — | -7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -32 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | -13 | 3 | 2 | |
| 10 | 6 | 2-5 | — | 2-3 | -22 | 4 | 0 | |
| 25 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-5 | — | -32 | 1 | 3 | |
| 19 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-3 | — | -21 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -22 | 4 | 3 | |
| Team | 87 | 31-82 | 9-38 | 16-19 | 36 | 20 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 24 | 8-14 | 0-4 | 8-8 | +22 | 3 | 3 | |
| 28 | 23 | 9-14 | 2-2 | 3-5 | +30 | 5 | 15 | |
| 25 | 11 | 5-7 | — | 1-2 | +29 | 7 | 3 | |
| 23 | 12 | 4-5 | — | 4-4 | +34 | 2 | 10 | |
| 28 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-5 | — | +31 | 6 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 19 | 8-13 | 2-4 | 1-1 | +47 | 4 | 0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -1 | 6 | 3 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -7 | 1 | 1 | |
| 19 | 14 | 5-7 | 4-6 | — | +31 | 2 | 2 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +18 | 4 | 1 | |
| 23 | 11 | 5-11 | 1-2 | — | +21 | 3 | 1 | |
| Team | 139 | 54-94 | 13-29 | 18-22 | 44 | 41 | ||
| DNP: B. Ingram, C. Murray-Boyles | ||||||||
DNP: B. Ingram, C. Murray-Boyles
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
57
20
Ast
41
Season series
TOR wins series 2-1
ORL106@TOR107TOR120@ORL130ORL87@TOR139todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ORL+10250%TOR-12255%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 4:45
ORLD. Bane
GGame leader · 27 min
17 PTS · 3 REB · 2 AST
TORS. Barnes
FGame leader · 28 minDouble-double
23 PTS · 5 REB · 15 AST
How it ended
TOR beat ORL 139-87. S. Barnes led with 23 PTS, 5 REB, 15 AST. TOR outscored the other side 38-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
TOR vs ORL
Starters vs bench
production by unitORLstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST
GS 29
Bench(7)
32 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST
GS 10
TORstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 23 REB · 31 AST
GS 92
Bench(8)
58 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST
GS 50
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRJ Barrett · makes free throw 1 of 2
Jamal Cain · lost ball turnover (Scottie Barnes steals)
Jamal Cain · bad pass turnover (Sandro Mamukelashvili steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 20 | 23 | 25 | 19 | 87 |
| TOR | 38 | 32 | 43 | 26 | 139 |
Period scoring
ORL won 0 · TOR won 4
Q1
Suggs 11
Barrett 16
Q2
Bitadze 6
Barrett 6
Q3
Tristan 7
Barnes 13
Q4
Howard 9
Dick 8
Shooting comparison
38%
31-82
FG
57%
54-94
24%
9-38
3PT
45%
13-29
84%
16-19
FT
82%
18-22
Play-by-play · 482 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·12.6
shot clock turnover
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·35.0
Alijah Martin defensive rebound
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·37.0
Jase Richardson misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·48.1
Magic defensive team rebound
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·50.4
Alijah Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·1:00
Moritz Wagner kicked ball violation
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·1:02
Alijah Martin offensive rebound
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·1:05
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses layup
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·1:14
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·1:17
Jett Howard misses 13-foot step back jumpshot
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·1:30
Gradey Dick makes driving layup (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
·
ORL 87·TOR 139
- Q4·1:48
Noah Penda bad pass turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)
·
ORL 87·TOR 137
- Q4·2:02
Moritz Wagner defensive rebound
ORL 87·TOR 137
- Q4·2:04
Garrett Temple misses 26-foot running jump shot
ORL 87·TOR 137
- Q4·2:10
Jevon Carter lost ball turnover (Alijah Martin steals)
·
ORL 87·TOR 137
- Q4·2:27
Magic Full timeout
ORL 87·TOR 137
- Q4·2:27
Gradey Dick makes running dunk (Jonathan Mogbo assists)
·
ORL 87·TOR 137
- Q4·2:29
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
ORL 87·TOR 135
- Q4·2:32
Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Moritz Wagner 's 2-foot driving layup
·
ORL 87·TOR 135
- Q4·2:50
Gradey Dick makes two point shot (Alijah Martin assists)
·
ORL 87·TOR 135
- Q4·3:01
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
ORL 87·TOR 133
- Q4·3:04
Noah Penda misses 24-foot three point jumper
ORL 87·TOR 133
- Q4·3:17
Alijah Martin makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 87·TOR 133
- Q4·3:17
Garrett Temple enters the game for Markelle Fultz
·
ORL 87·TOR 132
- Q4·3:17
Raptors offensive team rebound
ORL 87·TOR 132
- Q4·3:17
Alijah Martin misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 87·TOR 132
- Q4·3:17
Noah Penda shooting foul
ORL 87·TOR 132
- Q4·3:26
Alijah Martin defensive rebound
ORL 87·TOR 132
Team stats
ORL
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
31-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
54-94
38
FG %
57
9-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-29
16-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-22
20
Assists
41
27
Turnovers
10
Betting line
TOR -1.5·O/U 226.5·ORL +102/TOR -122
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899- Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798
RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · ORL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs ORL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL7.4± 4.7high
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
Assists
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR5.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
ORL
league avg
TOR
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.5%
45.9%
FG%
47.0
▶48.1%
114.2
PPG
114.9
114.3
26.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.2
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0