NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23DEN

36-39

93116

DEN

48-28

NBASun, Mar 29FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDEN -11.5

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Golden State Warriors, 116–93. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DEN -11.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 238.5 by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

GS · top performer

Brandin Podziemski

G · #2

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

24.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	30	13	5-11	2-7	1-1	-14	4	8
G. SantosF · #15	33	9	3-9	1-4	2-2	-12	10	3
K. PorzingisC · #7	29	23	8-14	5-5	2-2	-15	3	2
D. MeltonG · #8	25	0	0-5	0-3	—	-29	1	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	32	23	8-14	5-8	2-2	-8	5	2
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	4	2	1-1	—	—	-5	0	0
O. YurtsevenC · #77	4	0	0-1	—	—	-5	2	0
Q. PostC · #21	5	0	0-1	—	—	+1	2	0
Se. CurryG · #31	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	1	0
G. Payton IIG · #0	21	16	7-8	1-2	1-1	-2	5	1
N. WilliamsG · #19	11	0	0-3	0-2	—	-3	3	0
L. CryerG · #18	16	0	0-6	0-6	—	-15	0	2
P. SpencerG · #61	24	7	3-9	0-4	1-3	0	5	8
Team		93	35-83	14-42	9-11		41	29
DNP: M. Moody, W. Richard

DNP: M. Moody, W. Richard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	19	6	2-5	2-4	—	+13	1	3
N. JokicC · #15	36	25	10-20	4-8	1-1	+16	15	8
J. MurrayG · #27	34	20	7-12	2-4	4-5	+13	6	7
C. BraunG · #0	33	12	5-8	0-3	2-2	+17	3	0
P. WatsonG · #8	22	10	3-11	2-5	2-2	+11	6	5
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	8	0	—	—	—	+12	2	0
D. Holmes IIF · #14	2	5	2-2	1-1	—	+2	0	0
S. JonesF · #21	6	0	—	—	—	-3	0	1
J. ValanciunasC · #17	5	0	—	—	—	+2	1	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	26	16	5-10	4-8	2-2	+12	3	2
T. JonesG · #5	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	1
B. BrownG · #11	25	15	6-11	3-4	—	+7	1	0
J. PickettG · #24	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
J. StrawtherG · #3	18	7	3-7	1-3	—	+7	2	2
C. JonesG · #1	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	1
Team		116	43-86	19-40	11-12		40	31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 24

DEN131@

GS137

Nov 8

GS104@

DEN129

Feb 22

DEN117@

GS128

Mar 30

GS93@

DEN116today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+45518%

DEN-62586%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -11.5↗SpreadBet DEN -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowGS ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:26

B. Podziemski

Game leader · 32 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

23 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST

DEN

N. Jokic

Game leader · 36 minDouble-double

25 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

How it ended

DEN beat GS 116-93. N. Jokic paced them with 25 PTS, 15 REB, 8 AST. DEN outscored the other side 40-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST

GS 55

Bench(8)

25 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST

GS 19

DENstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST

GS 66

Bench(10)

43 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN3rd Quarter · 7:26 · 61-61

+9pp→ 73% WP

Gui Santos · shooting foul

DEN3rd Quarter · 4:41 · 66-67

+8pp→ 67% WP

Nikola Jokic · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)

GS3rd Quarter · 4:06 · 69-67

+8pp→ 42% WP

Brandin Podziemski · makes 24-foot three pointer (Pat Spencer assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	28	25	21	19	93
DEN	23	23	40	30	116

Period scoring

GS won 2 · DEN won 2

Green 8

Jokic 7

Porzingis 8

Jokic 8

Porzingis 9

Jokic 10

Podziemski 9

Murray 8

DEN

Shooting comparison

DEN

42%

35-83

50%

43-86

33%

14-42

3PT

48%

19-40

82%

9-11

92%

11-12

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 93·DEN 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 93·DEN 116
Q4·10.0
shot clock turnover
GS 93·DEN 116
Q4·33.6
LJ Cryer bad pass turnover (Tyus Jones steals)
· ·
GS 93·DEN 116
Q4·42.9
DaRon Holmes II makes 1-foot driving dunk (Tyus Jones assists)
· ·
GS 93·DEN 116
Q4·1:01
Omer Yurtseven lost ball turnover (Curtis Jones steals)
· ·
GS 93·DEN 114
Q4·1:03
Omer Yurtseven offensive rebound
GS 93·DEN 114
Q4·1:05
Pat Spencer misses free throw 3 of 3
GS 93·DEN 114
Q4·1:05
Julian Strawther enters the game for Peyton Watson
·
GS 93·DEN 114
Q4·1:05
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 93·DEN 114
Q4·1:05
Pat Spencer misses free throw 2 of 3
GS 93·DEN 114
Q4·1:05
Pat Spencer makes free throw 1 of 3
GS 93·DEN 114
Q4·1:05
Peyton Watson shooting foul
GS 92·DEN 114
Q4·1:13
DaRon Holmes II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Curtis Jones assists)
· ·
GS 92·DEN 114
Q4·1:28
Pat Spencer makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
GS 92·DEN 111
Q4·1:29
Pat Spencer offensive rebound
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:30
LJ Cryer misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:32
Nate Williams offensive rebound
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:37
Pat Spencer misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:56
Jalen Pickett enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:56
DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:56
Tyus Jones enters the game for Julian Strawther
· ·
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:56
Curtis Jones enters the game for Christian Braun
· ·
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:56
Bruce Brown personal take foul
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:56
Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·1:56
Peyton Watson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·2:14
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·2:16
LJ Cryer misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·2:29
Bruce Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper
GS 90·DEN 111
Q4·2:51
Malevy Leons makes 1-foot layup (LJ Cryer assists)
·
GS 90·DEN 108

Team stats

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

35-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-86

FG %

14-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-40

9-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-12

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DEN -11.5·O/U 238.5·GS +455/DEN -625

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 7 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.296
Cameron JohnsonDEN · F
TS%62.986
Spencer JonesDEN · F
TS%61.979
Christian BraunDEN · G
TS%60.770

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
5.4± 1.6high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Peyton WatsonDEN
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

DEN

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

114.5

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

28.8

Assists / G

25.0

28.7

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR