NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14LAC

LAC

39-36

127113

MIL

29-45

NBASun, Mar 29FinalSeriesLAC win series 2-0VegasLAC -17.5

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 127–113.

MIL +17.5 cashed (LAC won by 14). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAC · top performer

Bennedict Mathurin

G · #9

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Gary Trent Jr.

G · #5

24.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	23	20	8-16	4-7	—	+11	8	2
J. CollinsF · #20	35	22	9-13	0-2	4-5	-1	3	3
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	26	13	6-9	1-1	—	+14	4	0
B. LopezC · #11	25	8	2-3	0-1	4-5	+23	7	1
D. GarlandG · #10	27	15	5-9	3-7	2-2	+19	2	11
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	12	3	1-4	1-4	—	+5	2	1
K. DunnG · #8	32	10	4-5	2-3	—	+10	2	5
J. MillerG · #22	24	5	2-7	0-3	1-2	+1	5	3
B. MathurinG · #9	27	28	7-10	1-1	13-14	-3	6	1
K. SandersG · #4	10	3	1-1	1-1	—	-9	0	0
Team		127	45-77	13-30	24-28		39	27
DNP: N. Omier, B. Bogdanovic, S. Pedulla, C. Christie

DNP: N. Omier, B. Bogdanovic, S. Pedulla, C. Christie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. NanceF · #35	39	5	2-9	1-6	—	-10	3	1
O. DiengF · #21	22	7	3-8	0-4	1-2	-5	2	4
J. SimsC · #00	23	6	3-5	—	—	-16	5	3
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	37	36	12-21	9-15	3-4	-8	2	4
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	33	13	5-8	1-2	2-2	-15	6	0
Bench
T. PrinceF · #12	38	18	7-12	4-7	—	-2	6	8
C. RyanG · #30	20	13	4-6	3-5	2-2	+4	0	0
A. GreenG · #20	28	15	4-8	2-5	5-5	-18	3	3
Team		113	40-77	20-44	13-15		27	23
DNP: B. Portis, M. Turner, R. Rollins

DNP: B. Portis, M. Turner, R. Rollins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

LAC win series 2-0

Mar 24

MIL96@

LAC129

Mar 29

LAC127@

MIL113today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -17.5

Between 10 and —

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC-135093%

MIL+80011%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -17.5↗SpreadBet LAC -17.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

17.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAC ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 5:32

LAC

B. Mathurin

Game leader · 27 min

28 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

MIL

G. Trent Jr.

Game leader · 37 min30-point game

36 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

LAC beat MIL 127-113. B. Mathurin paced them with 28 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. LAC outscored the other side 39-28 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 24 REB · 17 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 43

MILstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 40

Bench(3)

46 PTS · 9 REB · 11 AST

GS 40

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	29	28	39	31	127
MIL	25	21	28	39	113

Period scoring

LAC won 3 · MIL won 1

Mathurin 6

Jr. 11

Leonard 10

Jr. 7

Lopez 8

Jr. 13

Mathurin 12

Jr. 16

LAC

MIL

Shooting comparison

LAC

MIL

58%

45-77

52%

40-77

43%

13-30

3PT

45%

20-44

86%

24-28

87%

13-15

Play-by-play · 419 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·23.0
Kris Dunn defensive rebound
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·25.4
Andre Jackson Jr. misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·32.1
John Collins lost ball turnover (Taurean Prince steals)
·
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·34.0
John Collins offensive rebound
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·36.1
Jordan Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·55.0
Bucks delay of game violation
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·55.0
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot two point shot
LAC 127·MIL 113
Q4·1:05
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 127·MIL 111
Q4·1:05
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 126·MIL 111
Q4·1:05
Andre Jackson Jr. personal foul
LAC 125·MIL 111
Q4·1:11
Kris Dunn defensive rebound
LAC 125·MIL 111
Q4·1:14
Gary Trent Jr. misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAC 125·MIL 111
Q4·1:28
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 125·MIL 111
Q4·1:28
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 124·MIL 111
Q4·1:28
Cormac Ryan personal foul
LAC 123·MIL 111
Q4·1:37
Gary Trent Jr. makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAC 123·MIL 111
Q4·1:49
John Collins makes 1-foot dunk (Kris Dunn assists)
·
LAC 123·MIL 108
Q4·2:06
Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound
LAC 121·MIL 108
Q4·2:10
Taurean Prince misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAC 121·MIL 108
Q4·2:29
Jordan Miller makes layup (John Collins assists)
·
LAC 121·MIL 108
Q4·2:48
Cormac Ryan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)
·
LAC 119·MIL 108
Q4·2:56
Kobe Sanders lost ball turnover (Andre Jackson Jr. steals)
·
LAC 119·MIL 105
Q4·2:58
Taurean Prince lost ball turnover (Kobe Sanders steals)
·
LAC 119·MIL 105
Q4·3:11
John Collins makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 119·MIL 105
Q4·3:11
John Collins makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 118·MIL 105
Q4·3:11
Andre Jackson Jr. personal foul
LAC 117·MIL 105
Q4·3:25
Gary Trent Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)
·
LAC 117·MIL 105
Q4·3:45
Bennedict Mathurin makes 27-foot three pointer
LAC 117·MIL 102

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

45-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-77

FG %

13-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-44

24-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-15

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

LAC -17.5·O/U 219.5·LAC -1350/MIL +800

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
25.0± 4.5high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
9.9± 4.4high
Jericho SimsMIL
7.5± 4.7high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Myles TurnerMIL
1.8± 1.6high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

MIL

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.7%

113.9

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR