NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15BOS

BOS

50-24

11499

CHA

39-36

NBASun, Mar 29FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCHA -2.5

BOS · top performer

Jayson Tatum

F · #0

26.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Liam McNeeley

G · #33

10.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:24

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	31	32	12-23	5-10	3-5	+15	5	8
S. HauserF · #30	34	7	2-4	2-4	1-2	+13	3	0
N. QuetaC · #88	29	17	8-13	0-1	1-2	+13	8	1
P. PritchardG · #11	37	28	10-18	2-6	6-6	+12	6	6
J. WalshG · #27	34	3	1-7	0-4	1-1	+14	7	2
Bench
J. TonjeF · #8	1	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
A. WilliamsF · #77	2	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
L. GarzaC · #52	13	2	1-1	—	—	+8	1	2
C. BasseyC · #99	1	1	—	—	1-2	-1	1	0
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	14	7	3-3	1-1	—	+10	3	1
B. ScheiermanG · #55	28	14	4-11	3-7	3-4	+6	1	3
M. ShulgaG · #44	2	0	0-1	—	—	-1	0	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	13	3	1-2	1-1	—	-12	3	0
Team		114	42-83	14-34	16-22		39	23

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	29	14	5-9	0-1	4-4	-25	2	2
M. DiabateF · #14	25	4	2-2	—	0-2	-17	6	0
B. MillerF · #24	32	13	5-13	3-9	—	-15	6	4
L. BallG · #1	26	19	7-19	3-12	2-2	-19	4	3
K. KnueppelG · #7	32	13	5-13	1-6	2-3	-12	4	2
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	0	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	13	2	1-1	—	—	+2	2	2
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	4	0	—	—	—	+2	1	0
C. WhiteG · #3	20	11	4-11	1-5	2-2	+13	4	1
J. GreenG · #10	18	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	1
T. MannG · #23	4	2	1-2	0-1	—	+2	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	22	11	4-8	3-6	—	-2	2	4
L. McNeeleyG · #33	11	10	2-3	1-1	5-6	-6	6	0
Team		99	36-83	12-43	15-19		37	19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

42-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-83

FG %

14-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-43

16-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 5

CHA118@

BOS89

Mar 29

BOS114@

CHA99today

Apr 8

CHA102@

BOS113

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+11447%

CHA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat CHA 114-99. J. Tatum paced them with 32 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. BOS outscored the other side 36-28 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 74

Bench(8)

27 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 24

CHAstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST

GS 39

Bench(8)

36 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 28

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	27	36	26	25	114
CHA	21	28	26	24	99

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · CHA won 0

Tatum 9

White 7

Tatum 11

Bridges 8

Pritchard 9

Tatum 8

Queta 6

Ball 12

BOS

CHA

Shooting comparison

BOS

CHA

51%

42-83

43%

36-83

41%

14-34

3PT

28%

12-43

73%

16-22

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 452 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 114·CHA 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 114·CHA 99
Q4·13.2
shot clock turnover
BOS 114·CHA 99
Q4·33.9
Josh Green bad pass turnover (John Tonje steals)
·
BOS 114·CHA 99
Q4·37.6
Amari Williams bad pass turnover (Josh Green steals)
·
BOS 114·CHA 99
Q4·49.1
Liam McNeeley makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 114·CHA 99
Q4·49.1
Liam McNeeley makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 114·CHA 98
Q4·49.1
Max Shulga personal foul
BOS 114·CHA 97
Q4·49.1
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
BOS 114·CHA 97
Q4·50.2
Charles Bassey misses free throw 2 of 2
BOS 114·CHA 97
Q4·50.2
Charles Bassey makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 114·CHA 97
Q4·50.2
Josh Green shooting foul
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·50.2
Charles Bassey offensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·52.2
Hugo Gonzalez misses running pullup jump shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·56.8
Xavier Tillman lost ball turnover (Hugo Gonzalez steals)
· ·
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:03
John Tonje enters the game for Ron Harper Jr.
·
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:03
Charles Bassey enters the game for Baylor Scheierman
·
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:03
Hornets offensive team rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:06
Josh Green misses running pullup jump shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:09
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:11
Baylor Scheierman misses two point shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:29
Amari Williams defensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:32
Tre Mann misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:40
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:42
Max Shulga misses 9-foot fade away jump shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:55
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·1:58
Xavier Tillman misses 25-foot three point jumper
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·2:15
Baylor Scheierman traveling turnover
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·2:26
Liam McNeeley makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 113·CHA 97
Q4·2:26
Max Shulga enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 113·CHA 96

Betting line

CHA -2.5·O/U 216.5·BOS +114/CHA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 114–99.

BOS +2.5 cashed (CHA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHA vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Jayson TatumBOS
22.9± 3.5high
Brandon MillerCHA
18.8± 5.5high
Paul GeorgeBOS
16.6± 4.2high

Rebounds

Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high

Assists

Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Payton PritchardBOS
5.4± 2.2high
Derrick WhiteBOS
4.0± 1.6high

Blocks

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Neemias QuetaBOS
1.0± 0.8high

Steals

Paul GeorgeBOS
1.5± 1.1high
Jayson TatumBOS
1.4± 1.2high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

CHA

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.0%

46.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Team pages

Boston CelticsCharlotte Hornets

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR