BOS
50-24
CHA
39-36
Recap · NBA
oston Celtics went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 114–99.
BOS +2.5 cashed (CHA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BOS · top performer
Jayson Tatum
F · #0
32
Pts
5
Reb
8
Ast
CHA · top performer
Liam McNeeley
G · #33
10
Pts
6
Reb
0
Ast
NBA · Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 32 | 12-23 | 5-10 | 3-5 | +15 | 5 | 8 | |
| 34 | 7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1-2 | +13 | 3 | 0 | |
| 29 | 17 | 8-13 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +13 | 8 | 1 | |
| 37 | 28 | 10-18 | 2-6 | 6-6 | +12 | 6 | 6 | |
| 34 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 1-1 | +14 | 7 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +8 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 7 | 3-3 | 1-1 | — | +10 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 14 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 3-4 | +6 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | -12 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 114 | 42-83 | 14-34 | 16-22 | 39 | 23 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 14 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | -25 | 2 | 2 | |
| 25 | 4 | 2-2 | — | 0-2 | -17 | 6 | 0 | |
| 32 | 13 | 5-13 | 3-9 | — | -15 | 6 | 4 | |
| 26 | 19 | 7-19 | 3-12 | 2-2 | -19 | 4 | 3 | |
| 32 | 13 | 5-13 | 1-6 | 2-3 | -12 | 4 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 11 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | +13 | 4 | 1 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-6 | — | -2 | 2 | 4 | |
| 11 | 10 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 5-6 | -6 | 6 | 0 | |
| Team | 99 | 36-83 | 12-43 | 15-19 | 37 | 19 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
43
23
Ast
19
Season series
Series tied 1-1
CHA118@BOS89BOS114@CHA99todayCHA102@BOS113Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CHA -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
216.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
BOS+11447%CHA-13557%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
216.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:24
BOSJ. Tatum
FGame leader · 31 min30-point game
32 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST
CHAL. McNeeley
GGame leader · 11 min
10 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
BOS beat CHA 114-99. J. Tatum paced them with 32 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. BOS outscored the other side 36-28 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHA vs BOS
Starters vs bench
production by unitBOSstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
87 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST
GS 74
Bench(8)
27 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST
GS 24
CHAstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST
GS 39
Bench(8)
36 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST
GS 28
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 27 | 36 | 26 | 25 | 114 |
| CHA | 21 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 99 |
Period scoring
BOS won 3 · CHA won 0
Q1
Tatum 9
White 7
Q2
Tatum 11
Bridges 8
Q3
Pritchard 9
Tatum 8
Q4
Queta 6
Ball 12
Shooting comparison
51%
42-83
FG
43%
36-83
41%
14-34
3PT
28%
12-43
73%
16-22
FT
79%
15-19
Play-by-play · 452 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 114·CHA 99
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 114·CHA 99
- Q4·13.2
shot clock turnover
BOS 114·CHA 99
- Q4·33.9
Josh Green bad pass turnover (John Tonje steals)
·
BOS 114·CHA 99
- Q4·37.6
Amari Williams bad pass turnover (Josh Green steals)
·
BOS 114·CHA 99
- Q4·49.1
Liam McNeeley makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 114·CHA 99
- Q4·49.1
Liam McNeeley makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 114·CHA 98
- Q4·49.1
Max Shulga personal foul
BOS 114·CHA 97
- Q4·49.1
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
BOS 114·CHA 97
- Q4·50.2
Charles Bassey misses free throw 2 of 2
BOS 114·CHA 97
- Q4·50.2
Charles Bassey makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 114·CHA 97
- Q4·50.2
Josh Green shooting foul
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·50.2
Charles Bassey offensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·52.2
Hugo Gonzalez misses running pullup jump shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·56.8
Xavier Tillman lost ball turnover (Hugo Gonzalez steals)
· ·
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:03
John Tonje enters the game for Ron Harper Jr.
·
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:03
Charles Bassey enters the game for Baylor Scheierman
·
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:03
Hornets offensive team rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:06
Josh Green misses running pullup jump shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:09
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:11
Baylor Scheierman misses two point shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:29
Amari Williams defensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:32
Tre Mann misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:40
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:42
Max Shulga misses 9-foot fade away jump shot
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:55
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·1:58
Xavier Tillman misses 25-foot three point jumper
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·2:15
Baylor Scheierman traveling turnover
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·2:26
Liam McNeeley makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 113·CHA 97
- Q4·2:26
Max Shulga enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 113·CHA 96
Team stats
BOS
Away
Stat
CHA
Home
42-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-83
51
FG %
43
14-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-43
16-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-19
23
Assists
19
5
Turnovers
11
Betting line
CHA -2.5·O/U 216.5·BOS +114/CHA -135
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 7 players in cohort- Jayson TatumBOS · FTOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · CCONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · CTS%68.296
Payton PritchardBOS · GTOUCHES65.688
Jordan WalshBOS · GTS%62.382
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHA vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Jaylen BrownBOS26.6± 6.3high
- Jayson TatumBOS22.9± 3.5high
- LaMelo BallCHA22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Jayson TatumBOS10.4± 3.8high
- Moussa DiabateCHA8.8± 2.9high
- Neemias QuetaBOS8.4± 3.6high
Assists
- LaMelo BallCHA7.3± 2.5high
- Jayson TatumBOS6.4± 2.6high
- Payton PritchardBOS5.4± 2.2high
Blocks
- Ryan KalkbrennerCHA1.3± 1.3high
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Neemias QuetaBOS1.0± 0.8high
Steals
- Jayson TatumBOS1.4± 1.2high
- LaMelo BallCHA1.1± 0.7high
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.0± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
BOS
league avg
CHA
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.0%
46.5%
FG%
47.0
45.9%
114.2
PPG
114.9
▶115.8
24.6
Assists / G
25.0
▶26.2
11.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.4