Recent form
6-4
CHW +1.2 vs ATL -0.8 margin
CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox
ATL
ATL
74-52
PregameThu, 2:10 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
CHW
CHW
65-60
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRate Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Grant Holmes
SP · #66
7-5
W-L
3.82
ERA
1.35
WHIP
97
K
117.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARIL(7-5)3.2 IP6 ER3 K
@NYY-6.0 IP0 ER2 K
vsMIAW(7-4)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
Home starter
Anthony Kay
SP · #18
9-5
W-L
4.01
ERA
1.34
WHIP
98
K
121.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@DET-5.1 IP3 ER4 K
vsCLEW(9-5)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
@TBW(8-5)6.1 IP0 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob46% / 54%
LeanHome · 4pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesCHW lead series 2-0
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHW vs ATL.
CHW is 6-4 recently; ATL is 4-6.
54.4%
model · CHW win prob
Recent form
- CHW6–4+1.2
- ATL4–6-0.8
Situational
- CHW2d rest
- ATL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHW has 5 straight road games; ATL has 2.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Chris Sale · 7.3 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 7.3.
- Sean BurkeCHW6.8strikeouts · ±3.0
Sean Burke · 6.8 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.2.
- Tyler MahleATL5.2strikeouts · ±2.4
Tyler Mahle · 5.2 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.5%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
52.0%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.8%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.8%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.43 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.3± 2.5high
- Sean BurkeCHW6.8± 3.0high
- Tyler MahleATL5.2± 2.4high
Hits
- Drake BaldwinATL1.2± 0.9high
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.1± 1.0high
- Mauricio DubonATL1.0± 1.3high
Total bases
- Matt OlsonATL2.2± 1.8high
- Miguel VargasCHW2.2± 3.3high
- Chase MeidrothCHW2.1± 2.9high
RBIs
- Matt OlsonATL0.7± 1.1high
- Chase MeidrothCHW0.7± 1.4high
- Colson MontgomeryCHW0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL3.1± 2.8high
- Luis CastilloCHW2.9± 1.7high
- Tyler MahleATL2.3± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATL
league avg
CHW
.727
OPS
.719
.730
.311
OBP
.318
▶.319
4.78
Runs / G
4.50
4.82
3.65
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.11
1.24
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.30
8.7
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.5
The One modelLean
Thu, Aug 20ATL
Braves
88-63
vs54.4%CHW
CHW★
White Sox
81-67
ATL 45.6%win prob54.4% CHW
CHW 1523 · ATL 1533Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
