Recent form
3-7
CLE -0.4 vs SF -2.0 margin
CLE brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians
SF
SF
52-74
PregameThu, 1:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
CLE
CLE
61-66
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Line movement
200 snapshots
CLE spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
CLE no-vig %
62.8%
open 61.3% · +1.5
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Landen Roupp
SP · #65
7-12
W-L
4.31
ERA
1.30
WHIP
128
K
129.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCOLL(7-12)5.2 IP4 ER5 K
vsDETL(7-11)5.1 IP1 ER3 K
@SDL(7-10)4.2 IP5 ER6 K
Home starter
Gavin Williams
SP · #32
11-7
W-L
3.74
ERA
1.08
WHIP
190
K
149.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDL(11-7)4.1 IP5 ER5 K
@CHW-5.2 IP2 ER7 K
vsARIW(11-6)5.2 IP0 ER10 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+167 / -180
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take CLE on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs SF.
CLE is 3-7 recently; SF is 3-7.
60.9%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE3–7-0.4
- SF3–7-2.0
Situational
- CLE1d restB2B
- SF1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 0 straight road games; SF has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.3strikeouts · ±2.6
Gavin Williams · 8.3 K · last-10 8.7 vs season 7.6.
- Joey CantilloCLE5.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Joey Cantillo · 5.9 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 5.3.
- Parker MessickCLE5.5strikeouts · ±2.9
Parker Messick · 5.5 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.9.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
CLE is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-18SF @ CLE1–8
- 2026-08-19SF @ CLE1–0
Line move
open -178→-191toward CLE
The market has moved 1.6pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.2%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
62.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.8%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.33 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 101 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.3± 2.6high
- Joey CantilloCLE5.9± 2.2high
- Parker MessickCLE5.5± 2.9high
Hits
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.3± 1.0high
- Angel MartinezCLE1.1± 0.9high
- Angel GenaoCLE1.0± 1.3low
Total bases
- Angel MartinezCLE1.8± 1.8high
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.8± 1.7high
- Jo AdellCLE1.8± 2.3high
RBIs
- Jo AdellCLE0.9± 1.9high
- Angel MartinezCLE0.8± 1.9high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Carson WhisenhuntSF3.6± 2.7low
- Tanner BibeeCLE2.7± 1.8high
- Landen RouppSF2.7± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SF
league avg
CLE
.712
OPS
◀
.719
.681
.306
OBP
.318
▶.312
4.06
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.95
4.35
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.80
1.35
WHIP
1.30
▶1.27
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.5
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 20SF
Giants
71-85
vs60.9%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
81-72
SF 39.1%win prob60.9% CLE
CLE 1512 · SF 1450Box score→
Team pages
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
