Recent form
4-6
HOU -0.7 vs LAA -0.9 margin
HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
LAA
LAA
50-76
PregameThu, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
HOU
HOU
63-63
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Grayson Rodriguez
SP · #21
3-5
W-L
7.17
ERA
1.59
WHIP
55
K
59.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsKC-4.0 IP3 ER5 K
@MIAL(3-5)4.0 IP3 ER8 K
@BALL(3-4)7.0 IP2 ER6 K
Home starter
Peter Lambert
SP · #38
8-6
W-L
3.11
ERA
1.15
WHIP
117
K
118.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSEA-5.0 IP2 ER6 K
@SDL(8-6)5.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsTEX-5.2 IP2 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob35% / 65%
LeanHome · 15pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesLAA lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs LAA.
HOU has dropped 3 straight; LAA is 5-5 over its last 10.
64.8%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU4–6-0.7
- LAA5–5-0.9
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- LAA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; LAA has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Reid DetmersLAA6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Reid Detmers · 6.7 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.7.
- Peter LambertHOU5.8strikeouts · ±2.2
Peter Lambert · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.6.
- Walbert UrenaLAA4.7strikeouts · ±1.6
Walbert Urena · 4.7 K · last-10 4.7 vs season 4.6.
Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4
HOU is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-27HOU @ LAA6–4
- 2026-07-28HOU @ LAA3–2
- 2026-07-29HOU @ LAA7–4
- 2026-08-18LAA @ HOU3–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
66.1%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
68.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
72.5%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.9%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.93 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 99 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA6.7± 2.1high
- Peter LambertHOU5.8± 2.2high
- Hunter BrownHOU5.1± 2.1low
Hits
- Isaac ParedesHOU1.2± 1.2high
- Jose AltuveHOU1.1± 1.0high
- Cam SmithHOU1.0± 1.2high
Total bases
- Cam SmithHOU1.9± 3.0high
- Isaac ParedesHOU1.8± 1.9high
- Jose AltuveHOU1.7± 1.8high
RBIs
- Nolan SchanuelLAA0.8± 1.3high
- Christian WalkerHOU0.7± 1.1high
- Isaac ParedesHOU0.6± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Grayson RodriguezLAA3.5± 2.5low
- Hayden WesneskiHOU3.3± 1.7low
- Ryan JohnsonLAA2.6± 2.8medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
HOU
.683
OPS
.719
▶.729
.309
OBP
.318
▶.318
4.05
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.58
4.37
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.57
1.35
WHIP
1.30
1.36
9.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.8
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 20LAA
Angels
58-91
vs64.8%HOU
HOU★
Astros
81-72
LAA 35.2%win prob64.8% HOU
HOU 1526 · LAA 1419Box score→
Team pages
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
