Recent form
3-7
CLE -1.1 vs SF -1.7 margin
CLE brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians
SF
SF
51-73
PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CLE
CLE
60-65
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Carson Whisenhunt
SP · #88
3-3
W-L
6.11
ERA
1.71
WHIP
22
K
28.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsHOUW(3-3)5.2 IP1 ER2 K
@TEXL(2-3)3.1 IP4 ER4 K
@SDL(2-2)3.1 IP6 ER3 K
Home starter
Foster Griffin
SP · #22
13-4
W-L
3.25
ERA
1.11
WHIP
125
K
138.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@DETW(13-4)5.0 IP1 ER3 K
vsNYML(12-4)4.0 IP5 ER6 K
@ATLL(12-3)5.1 IP6 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSF wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs SF.
CLE is 3-7 recently; SF is 3-7.
60.6%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE3–7-1.1
- SF3–7-1.7
Situational
- CLE2d rest
- SF2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 0 straight road games; SF has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.3strikeouts · ±2.6
Gavin Williams · 8.3 K · last-10 8.7 vs season 7.6.
- Joey CantilloCLE5.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Joey Cantillo · 5.9 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 5.3.
- Parker MessickCLE5.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Parker Messick · 5.4 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.7%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
62.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.38 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 101 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.3± 2.6high
- Joey CantilloCLE5.9± 2.2high
- Parker MessickCLE5.4± 2.9high
Hits
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.3± 1.0high
- Angel MartinezCLE1.2± 0.8high
- Steven KwanCLE1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Angel MartinezCLE2.0± 1.8high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE1.9± 2.6high
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.8± 1.7high
RBIs
- Angel MartinezCLE0.8± 1.9high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE0.8± 1.1high
- Jo AdellCLE0.5± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Carson WhisenhuntSF3.2± 2.5low
- Landen RouppSF2.7± 1.9high
- Tanner BibeeCLE2.6± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SF
league avg
CLE
.714
OPS
◀
.719
.682
.307
OBP
.318
▶.313
4.10
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.95
4.36
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.85
1.35
WHIP
1.30
▶1.27
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.4
The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 18SF
Giants
70-84
vs60.6%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
80-71
SF 39.4%win prob60.6% CLE
CLE 1513 · SF 1449Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- YankeesOrioles8/18 - 6:35 PM EDT
- TigersPirates8/18 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsPhillies8/18 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsReds8/18 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysRays8/18 - 6:40 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksRed Sox8/18 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PadresMets8/18 - 7:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRoyals8/18 - 7:40 PM EDT
- MarinersBrewers8/18 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BravesTwins8/18 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxCubs8/18 - 8:05 PM EDT
- NationalsRangers8/18 - 8:05 PM EDT
- AngelsAstros8/18 - 8:10 PM EDT
- DodgersRockies8/18 - 8:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
