Park factor
103 total idx
Great American Ball Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
STL
STL
65-63
PregameThu, 12:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CIN
CIN
61-66
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketGreat American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Line movement
200 snapshots
CIN spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
CIN no-vig %
48.3%
open 52.4% · -4.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Michael McGreevy
SP · #36
5-9
W-L
3.48
ERA
1.22
WHIP
91
K
132.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHCW(5-9)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsCOL-5.2 IP3 ER4 K
@NYY-4.1 IP2 ER5 K
Home starter
Brady Singer
SP · #51
5-11
W-L
4.66
ERA
1.44
WHIP
104
K
125.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIA-6.0 IP3 ER4 K
@WSHL(5-11)6.0 IP3 ER3 K
vsATH-6.0 IP3 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money-112 / +104
Model edge
Win prob53% / 47%
LeanAway · 3pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 2-2
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Pick a side.
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Scouting report · pre-game
CIN vs STL.
CIN is 5-5 recently; STL is 6-4.
46.6%
model · CIN win prob
Recent form
- CIN5–5-1.4
- STL6–4+1.7
Situational
- CIN1d restB2B
- STL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CIN has 0 straight road games; STL has 7.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.5 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.6.
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.5strikeouts · ±2.3
Matthew Liberatore · 5.5 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 5.
- Kyle LeahySTL5.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Kyle Leahy · 5 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 4.6.
Head-to-head · 4-3 · last 7
CIN is 4-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-26CIN @ STL5–3
- 2026-08-17STL @ CIN5–6
- 2026-08-17STL @ CIN2–1
- 2026-08-18STL @ CIN3–0
- 2026-08-19STL @ CIN4–5
Line move
open -110→-102toward STL
The market has moved 1.9pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.7%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
46.7%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.3%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.74 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CIN vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 106 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5± 2.5high
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.5± 2.3high
- Kyle LeahySTL5.0± 2.3high
Hits
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.3± 0.8high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.2± 1.1high
- Sal StewartCIN1.1± 0.6high
Total bases
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.2± 2.0high
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.2± 2.5high
- Joshua BaezSTL2.2± 6.5low
RBIs
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.1± 1.6high
- Joshua BaezSTL1.0± 2.7low
- Sal StewartCIN0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.8± 2.1high
- Rhett LowderCIN2.7± 2.6high
- Andrew AbbottCIN2.6± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
STL
league avg
CIN
.699
OPS
.719
.696
.317
OBP
◀
.318
.305
4.39
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.05
4.01
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.48
1.32
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.40
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶8.2
The One modelTossup
Thu, Aug 20STL★
Cardinals
77-68
vs53.4%STL
CIN
Reds
70-78
STL 53.4%win prob46.6% CIN
STL 1510 · CIN 1463Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
