Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at LV?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

ATL

21-13

PregameTue, 9:00 PM EDTESPN

24-12

ATS/LV -3.5O/U/178.5ML/LV-155

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

ATL +6.1 vs LV +0.4 margin

ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+1.0 days

LV 3 rest vs ATL 2

LV has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+45.1

LV Elo vs ATL Elo

LV owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing ATL uphill early today again.

WNBATue, Aug 188/18 - 9:00 PM EDTSeriesLV leads series 2-0VegasLV -3.5

Preview · WNBA

tlanta Dream visit Las Vegas Aces Tuesday at 8/18 - 9:00 PM EDT. ATL is 5-3 in their last 8. LV is 6-4 in their last 10.

Vegas opened LV as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 178.5. LV's moneyline implies a 61% break-even, ATL the inverse.

For bettors: the LV side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 178.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

LV leads series 2-0

May 17

LV85@

ATL84

Aug 3

LV109@

ATL87

Aug 19

ATL@

LVtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

178.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

ATL+13043%

LV-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -3.5↗SpreadBet LV -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

178.5

-2.0 since open

Scouting report

ATL @ LV

8/18 - 9:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

LV +1 day

ATLStandard

2 days

last game Aug 16

LVLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 15

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

LV -3.5

Model

ATL -7.6

Edge

split

Total

Market

178.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LV -155

Model

ATL

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

ATLmetricLV

21-13

Record

24-12

Conf rank

+4.3

Pt diff

+3.5

Streak

7-3

Last 10

6-4

64.2

Power score

56.5

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

LV -3.5·O/U 178.5·ATL +130/LV -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

LV vs ATL.

LV is 6-4 recently; ATL is 7-3.

67.9%

model · LV win prob

Recent form

LV6–4+0.4
ATL7–3+6.1

Situational

LV3d rest
ATL2d rest
+1.0d differential

LV has 1 more rest day. LV has 0 straight road games; ATL has 0.

Model angle

+9.6ppon LV

LV's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+4.5pp
▲Venue split+4.5pp
▼Line steam-2.1pp

Players to watch

A'ja WilsonLV
25.0points · ±8.2
A'ja Wilson · 25 pts · last-10 24.7 vs season 25.5.
Allisha GrayATL
20.6points · ±7.8
Allisha Gray · 20.6 pts · last-10 21.8 vs season 18.8.
Jackie YoungLV
20.1points · ±9.3
Jackie Young · 20.1 pts · last-10 21.3 vs season 18.3.

Head-to-head · 5-0 · last 5

LV is 5-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-23ATL @ LV72–87
2025-08-20ATL @ LV72–74
2025-08-27LV @ ATL81–75
2026-05-17LV @ ATL85–84
2026-08-03LV @ ATL109–87

Line move

open -166→-155toward ATL

The market has moved 1.6pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.6%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
66.0%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
68.5%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.8%
P(LV win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LV.

LV's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+9.6

pp edge · LV

-1.67

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on LV

70.9%

±9.2pp band

5u large — +10.1pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+12.6pp

+3.0pp post-cal

Kelly

25.8%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.65

+10.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 9.6pp · LV over ATL

▲
Model confidence90% conf
LV clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.5pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
LV's venue form is 32.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+4.5pp
▼
Line steam70% conf
The market moved 1.7pp away from LV since open.
-2.1pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
LV has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+1.8pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
LV has 3 days rest; ATL has 2.
+0.9pp

Open price

-166

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at LV?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.6pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

★ best

-155DraftKings

edge +9.6pp · implied 58.3%

Book	ATL	LV	Best edge
DraftKings	+130	-155★	+9.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LV vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.0± 8.2high
Allisha GrayATL
20.6± 7.8high
Jackie YoungLV
20.1± 9.3high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.8± 4.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
9.2± 3.7high
NaLyssa SmithLV
7.1± 3.3high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
7.6± 2.6high
Chelsea GrayLV
6.5± 1.8high
Jackie YoungLV
6.2± 3.3high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.9± 1.1high
Rhyne HowardATL
1.2± 1.2high
Angel ReeseATL
0.9± 1.1high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.0± 1.4high
Jordin CanadaATL
1.8± 1.2high
Angel ReeseATL
1.4± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Atlanta DreamLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces

LV vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LV.

Where to bet this game.

LV vs ATL.