Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
TOR
TOR
62-65
PregameThu, 1:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
TB
TB
75-50
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Shane Bieber
SP · #57
4-2
W-L
4.99
ERA
1.56
WHIP
37
K
48.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYYW(4-2)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
@PHI-5.2 IP5 ER4 K
@HOUW(3-2)5.2 IP1 ER6 K
Home starter
Ian Seymour
SP · #61
9-3
W-L
4.11
ERA
1.13
WHIP
115
K
96.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBAL-6.0 IP3 ER9 K
@SEAW(9-3)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@COLW(8-3)6.0 IP2 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob35% / 65%
LeanHome · 15pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesTOR leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TB vs TOR.
TB is 6-4 recently; TOR is 7-3.
65.5%
model · TB win prob
Recent form
- TB6–4+0.6
- TOR7–3+0.8
Situational
- TB2d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TB has 0 straight road games; TOR has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.6strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.6 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 8.5.
- Ian SeymourTB5.4strikeouts · ±2.8
Ian Seymour · 5.4 K · last-10 7 vs season 2.9.
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Drew Rasmussen · 5.2 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.6.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
TB is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-20TB @ TOR7–1
- 2026-07-21TB @ TOR12–2
- 2026-07-22TB @ TOR4–2
- 2026-07-23TB @ TOR1–3
- 2026-08-18TOR @ TB10–5
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
66.0%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
68.9%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.9%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.4%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.63 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.6± 2.6high
- Ian SeymourTB5.4± 2.8high
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2± 3.1high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.5± 1.1high
- Yandy DiazTB1.4± 1.3high
- Jonathan ArandaTB1.2± 0.9high
Total bases
- Yandy DiazTB2.3± 2.3high
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.7± 1.4high
- Jonathan ArandaTB1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Junior CamineroTB0.7± 1.0high
- Andres GimenezTOR0.7± 1.0high
- Jonathan ArandaTB0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.5± 3.2high
- Max ScherzerTOR3.0± 3.6low
- Shane BieberTOR2.7± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
TB
.682
OPS
.719
▶.740
.305
OBP
.318
▶.332
3.95
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.57
3.96
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.83
1.31
WHIP
1.30
▶1.16
8.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One model★ Lock
Thu, Aug 20TOR
Blue Jays
66-94
vs65.4%TB
TB★
Rays
103-50
TOR 34.6%win prob65.4% TB
TB 1582 · TOR 1468Box score→
Team pages
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
