Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

TOR

10-24

PregameWed, 7:30 PM EDTMNMT, WNBA League Pass, TSN

WSH

20-14

ATS/WSH -9.5O/U/170.5ML/WSH-500

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

WSH +4.5 vs TOR -15.0 margin

WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+3.0 days

WSH 4 rest vs TOR 1

WSH has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+148.9

WSH Elo vs TOR Elo

WSH owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing TOR uphill early today again.

WNBAWed, Aug 198/19 - 7:30 PM EDTSeriesWSH leads series 3-0VegasWSH -9.5

Preview · WNBA

oronto Tempo visit Washington Mystics Wednesday at 8/19 - 7:30 PM EDT. WSH is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7.

Vegas opened WSH as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 170.5. WSH's moneyline implies a 83% break-even, TOR the inverse. TOR is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the WSH side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 170.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedTotal ↗ 1.0pt over 6h47m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

FG %

Season series

WSH leads series 3-0

May 8

WSH68@

TOR65

Jun 12

TOR85@

WSH86

Jul 14

WSH79@

TOR62

Aug 19

TOR@

WSHtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

TOR+38021%

WSH-50083%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -9.5↗SpreadBet WSH -9.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

+1.0 since open

Total

170.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

TOR @ WSH

8/19 - 7:30 PM EDT

StorylineTOR dropped 11 straight.

Rest going in

WSH +3 days

TORB2B

0 days

last game Aug 18

WSHLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 15

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

WSH -9.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

170.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

WSH -500

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

TORmetricWSH

10-24

Record

20-14

Conf rank

-6.4

Pt diff

-0.8

L11

Streak

0-10

Last 10

8-2

56.5

Sched ahead

58.9

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

WSH -9.5·O/U 170.5·TOR +380/WSH -500

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

WSH vs TOR.

WSH is 8-2 recently; TOR is 0-10.

84.7%

model · WSH win prob

Recent form

WSH8–2+4.5
TOR0–10-15.0

Situational

WSH4d rest
TOR1d restB2B
+3.0d differential

WSH has 3 more rest days. WSH has 0 straight road games; TOR has 0.

Model angle

+4.7ppon WSH

WSH's edge is mostly venue split plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

▲Venue split+1.5pp
▲Line steam+1.4pp
▲Recent form+1.2pp

Players to watch

Marina MabreyTOR
20.7points · ±8.0
Marina Mabrey · 20.7 pts · last-10 20.6 vs season 20.9.
Shakira AustinWSH
19.8points · ±5.1
Shakira Austin · 19.8 pts · last-10 21.8 vs season 16.7.
Sonia CitronWSH
16.7points · ±4.4
Sonia Citron · 16.7 pts · last-10 16.8 vs season 16.5.

Head-to-head · 3-0 · last 3

WSH is 3-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-08WSH @ TOR68–65
2026-06-12TOR @ WSH85–86
2026-07-14WSH @ TOR79–62

Line move

open -395→-500toward WSH

The market has moved 3.5pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

82.0%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
77.9%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
76.5%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
72.9%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like WSH.

WSH's edge is mostly venue split plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+4.7

pp edge · WSH

5.0u · large

on WSH

92.0%

±7.8pp band

5u large — +8.7pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+12.0pp

+7.3pp post-cal

Kelly

52.0%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.20

+8.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.7pp · WSH over TOR

▲
Venue split68% conf
WSH's venue form is 72.2pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Line steam79% conf
The market moved 3.4pp toward WSH since open.
+1.4pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
WSH is 3-2 over its last 5; TOR is 0-5.
+1.2pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
WSH has 4 days rest; TOR has 1.
+0.9pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
WSH sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
WSH has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

WSH vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.7± 8.0high
Shakira AustinWSH
19.8± 5.1high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.5± 9.7medium

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.8± 2.9high
Kiki IriafenWSH
8.6± 2.2high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
6.9± 4.5high

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.0± 3.2high
Sonia CitronWSH
4.5± 2.5high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.7± 1.6high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.2± 1.4high
Lauren BettsWSH
1.1± 1.3high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
0.7± 0.8high

Steals

Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 1.1high
Sonia CitronWSH
1.1± 0.8high
Brittney SykesTOR
1.0± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoWashington Mystics

Elsewhere in the WNBA

LynxValkyries8/19 - 10:00 PM EDT

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Toronto Tempo at Washington Mystics

WSH vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like WSH.

WSH vs TOR.