Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CHI?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

22-14

PregameTue, 9:00 PM EDTWWOR-TV, Liberty Live

CHI

13-22

ATS/NY -4.5O/U/181.5ML/NY-185

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

NY +5.7 vs CHI -2.5 margin

NY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-1.0 days

CHI 2 rest vs NY 3

NY has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+169.9

CHI Elo vs NY Elo

NY owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CHI uphill early today again.

WNBATue, Aug 188/18 - 9:00 PM EDTSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -4.5

Preview · WNBA

ew York Liberty visit Chicago Sky Tuesday at 8/18 - 9:00 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 7-2 in their last 9. CHI is 4-4 in their last 8.

Vegas opened NY as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 181.5. CHI's moneyline implies a 39% break-even, NY the inverse.

For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 181.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedTotal ↘ 2.0pt over 6.1h38m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

FG %

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

Jun 18

NY96@

CHI95

Jul 22

CHI94@

NY95

Aug 19

NY@

CHItoday

Aug 29

CHI@

NYupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

181.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

NY-18565%

CHI+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -4.5↗SpreadBet NY -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

181.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

NY @ CHI

8/18 - 9:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

NY +1 day

NYLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 15

CHIStandard

2 days

last game Aug 16

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

NY -4.5

Model

NY -28.6

Edge

+24.1 pts

Total

Market

181.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

NY -185

Model

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

NYmetricCHI

22-14

Record

13-22

Conf rank

+3.3

Pt diff

-2.4

Streak

8-2

Last 10

4-6

75.0

Power score

46.3

Power rank

59.6

Sched ahead

78.0

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

NY -4.5·O/U 181.5·NY -185/CHI +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

CHI vs NY.

CHI is 4-6 recently; NY is 8-2.

25.8%

model · CHI win prob

Recent form

CHI4–6-2.5
NY8–2+5.7

Situational

CHI2d rest
NY3d rest
-1.0d differential

NY has 1 more rest day. CHI has 3 straight road games; NY has 1.

Model angle

+12.0ppon NY

NY's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Venue split is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Venue split-1.4pp
▲Recent form+0.8pp

Players to watch

Breanna StewartNY
18.9points · ±8.1
Breanna Stewart · 18.9 pts · last-10 18.2 vs season 19.9.
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.9points · ±7.1
Sabrina Ionescu · 17.9 pts · last-10 19.6 vs season 15.4.
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5points · ±6.0
Sydney Taylor · 17.5 pts · last-10 19.3 vs season 14.7.

Head-to-head · 1-3 · last 4

CHI is 1-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-08-21CHI @ NY91–85
2025-09-12NY @ CHI91–86
2026-06-17NY @ CHI96–95
2026-07-22CHI @ NY94–95

Line move

open +150→+160toward NY

The market has moved 1.5pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

26.1%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
36.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
34.4%
P(CHI win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
38.7%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like NY.

NY's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+12.0

pp edge · NY

+0.60

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on NY

83.2%

±8.3pp band

5u large — +18.3pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+21.0pp

+9.0pp post-cal

Kelly

52.1%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.54

+18.3pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 12.0pp · NY over CHI

▲
Model confidence90% conf
NY clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Venue split70% conf
CHI's venue form trims NY's edge by 28.3pp.
-1.4pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
NY is 4-1 over its last 5; CHI is 2-3.
+0.8pp
▲
Line steam69% conf
The market moved 1.5pp toward NY since open.
+0.6pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
NY has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
NY has 3 days rest; CHI has 2.
+0.3pp

Open price

-180

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Market came to the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CHI?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CHI vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
18.9± 8.1high
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.9± 7.1high
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.9± 4.0high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.6± 3.5high
Breanna StewartNY
7.9± 3.2high

Assists

Natasha CloudCHI
5.6± 2.3high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
5.2± 2.2medium
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.3± 0.9high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 0.9high

Steals

Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.4± 1.6medium
Natasha CloudCHI
1.3± 0.8high
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New York LibertyChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

New York Liberty at Chicago Sky

CHI vs NY.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like NY.

CHI vs NY.