Recent form
4-6
WSH +0.3 vs TEX -1.0 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers
WSH
WSH
60-67
PregameThu, 8:05 PM EDTMLB.TV, FS1
TEX
TEX
62-64
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Andrew Alvarez
SP · #54
2-4
W-L
3.72
ERA
1.33
WHIP
69
K
75.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYML(2-4)5.2 IP2 ER4 K
vsCIN-5.1 IP1 ER2 K
@PHI-6.1 IP2 ER5 K
Home starter
Jacob deGrom
SP · #48
8-8
W-L
3.95
ERA
1.17
WHIP
147
K
120.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAAL(8-8)2.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsBALW(8-7)5.0 IP1 ER9 K
@HOUL(7-7)3.1 IP5 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesTEX leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs WSH.
TEX is 4-6 recently; WSH is 4-6.
56.6%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX4–6-1.0
- WSH4–6+0.3
Situational
- TEX2d rest
- WSH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 0 straight road games; WSH has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Cade CavalliWSH6.5strikeouts · ±3.4
Cade Cavalli · 6.5 K · last-10 6.9 vs season 5.8.
- Jacob deGromTEX6.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Jacob deGrom · 6.3 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.4.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.1strikeouts · ±1.9
MacKenzie Gore · 6.1 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.9.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
TEX is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-18WSH @ TEX0–5
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Player projections
TEX vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cade CavalliWSH6.5± 3.4high
- Jacob deGromTEX6.3± 2.5high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.1± 1.9high
Hits
- Jacob YoungWSH1.2± 0.7high
- Keibert RuizWSH1.1± 1.0high
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Abimelec OrtizWSH2.1± 2.9low
- Jacob YoungWSH1.8± 1.8high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.6± 2.4high
RBIs
- Jake BurgerTEX0.7± 1.2high
- Abimelec OrtizWSH0.7± 1.4low
- Andres ChaparroWSH0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Jake IrvinWSH3.0± 2.2medium
- Kumar RockerTEX2.9± 2.4high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX2.9± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
WSH
league avg
TEX
.762
OPS
◀
.719
.711
.326
OBP
◀
.318
.316
5.28
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.06
4.73
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.27
1.39
WHIP
1.30
▶1.30
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelLean
Thu, Aug 20WSH
Nationals
71-74
vs56.6%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
78-73
WSH 43.4%win prob56.6% TEX
TEX 1488 · WSH 1474Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
