Park factor
97 total idx
Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY
NYY
70-55
PregameThu, 6:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
BAL
BAL
61-65
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Gerrit Cole
SP · #45
6-6
W-L
3.22
ERA
1.08
WHIP
92
K
86.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@TORL(6-6)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsATLW(6-5)7.0 IP2 ER9 K
@CHCW(5-5)5.2 IP1 ER5 K
Home starter
Kyle Bradish
SP · #38
7-11
W-L
3.65
ERA
1.36
WHIP
124
K
133.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@TB-6.0 IP2 ER3 K
@TEXL(7-11)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsPHIL(7-10)3.0 IP2 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob57% / 43%
LeanAway · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesNYY lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BAL vs NYY.
BAL is 5-5 recently; NYY is 6-4.
43.2%
model · BAL win prob
Recent form
- BAL5–5+0.5
- NYY6–4+0.6
Situational
- BAL2d rest
- NYY2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BAL has 0 straight road games; NYY has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Cam Schlittler · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.7.
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.4strikeouts · ±1.3
Ryan Weathers · 5.4 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.8.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
BAL is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-18NYY @ BAL3–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.0%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
45.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.4%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.4%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.41 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BAL vs NYY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 110 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.7± 2.2high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.5± 2.4medium
- Carlos RodonNYY5.8± 2.0low
Hits
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.5± 1.0high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.0± 1.1high
- Gunnar HendersonBAL1.0± 1.5high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.8± 2.8high
- Trent GrishamNYY2.2± 3.4high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.9± 2.5high
RBIs
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.0± 1.4high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.9± 1.3high
- Trent GrishamNYY0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Will WarrenNYY2.8± 2.4high
- Chris BassittBAL2.5± 2.2low
- Shane BazBAL2.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYY
league avg
BAL
.715
OPS
.719
.718
.308
OBP
.318
▶.320
4.43
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.52
3.24
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.23
1.18
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.35
9.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.1
The One modelLean
Thu, Aug 20NYY★
Yankees
81-67
vs56.9%NYY
BAL
Orioles
65-87
NYY 56.9%win prob43.1% BAL
NYY 1528 · BAL 1469Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
