San Diego Padres vs New York Mets: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 18, 2026

67-58

PregameTue, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

NYM

56-69

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

8-2

SD +2.0 vs NYM +1.1 margin

SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Robbie Ray

SP · #38

10-7

W-L

3.28

ERA

1.33

WHIP

113

131.2

Last 3 starts

vsMIL-4.0 IP2 ER4 K

vsHOUL(10-7)5.0 IP4 ER2 K

@SDW(10-6)6.0 IP1 ER6 K

Home starter

Zac Thornton

SP · #49

3-3

W-L

2.78

ERA

1.10

WHIP

45.1

Last 3 starts

@ATLL(3-3)6.0 IP3 ER2 K

@PITW(3-2)5.0 IP0 ER3 K

vsMIAL(2-2)4.2 IP3 ER2 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob54% / 47%

LeanAway · 4pp

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesNYM lead series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

NYM vs SD.

NYM enters on a 3-game win streak; SD is 8-2 over its last 10.

46.6%

model · NYM win prob

Recent form

NYM7–3+1.1
SD8–2+2.0

Situational

NYM2d rest
SD2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NYM has 0 straight road games; SD has 3.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.9strikeouts · ±2.1
Nolan McLean · 6.9 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.6.
Sean ManaeaNYM
5.2strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Manaea · 5.2 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 4.3.
Michael KingSD
5.0strikeouts · ±1.0
Michael King · 5 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.1%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.7%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.9± 2.1high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.4medium
Sean ManaeaNYM
5.2± 2.4high

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.3± 0.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.2± 1.4high
Francisco LindorNYM
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Carson BengeNYM
2.3± 1.6high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
2.2± 2.3high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Jackson MerrillSD
0.8± 0.7high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Jared YoungNYM
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Robert StockNYM
3.0± 5.9low
Walker BuehlerSD
2.9± 2.8high
Randy VasquezSD
2.3± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

NYM

.704

OPS

.719

.697

.314

OBP

◀

.318

.307

4.28

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.18

4.08

Team ERA

4.17

4.09

1.31

WHIP

1.30

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelTossup

Tue, Aug 18

SD★

Padres

76-70

vs53.5%SD

NYM

Mets

66-81

SD 53.5%win prob46.5% NYM

SD 1534 · NYM 1492Box score→

Team pages

San Diego PadresNew York Mets

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

San Diego Padres at New York Mets

The matchup, end-to-end.

NYM vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league