St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 17, 2026

STL

63-61

PregameMon, 1:40 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV

CIN

59-64

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

103 total idx

Great American Ball Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

STL +1.9 vs CIN -2.5 margin

STL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Quinn Mathews

SP · #60

0-1

W-L

3.60

ERA

1.80

WHIP

5.0

Last 1 starts

@TORL(0-1)5.0 IP2 ER3 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob55% / 45%

LeanAway · 5pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSTL leads series 5-3

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

CIN vs STL.

CIN is 4-6 recently; STL is 7-3.

44.6%

model · CIN win prob

Recent form

CIN4–6-2.5
STL7–3+1.9

Situational

CIN1d restB2B
STL1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CIN has 0 straight road games; STL has 3.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.3pp

Players to watch

Chase BurnsCIN
6.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.4 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.6.
Kyle LeahySTL
5.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Kyle Leahy · 5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.6.
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Matthew Liberatore · 5 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 4.8.

Head-to-head · 2-1 · last 3

CIN is 2-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-24CIN @ STL4–2
2026-07-25CIN @ STL0–7
2026-07-26CIN @ STL5–3

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
46.4%
P(CIN win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
46.4%
P(CIN win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.7%
P(CIN win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 111 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.4± 2.5high
Kyle LeahySTL
5.0± 2.3high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 2.3high

Hits

Ivan HerreraSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 0.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 2.3high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
2.0± 2.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.6high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.2high
Brady SingerCIN
2.6± 1.4high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

CIN

.698

OPS

.719

.699

.316

OBP

◀

.318

.306

4.42

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

4.04

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.51

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.40

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

The One modelLean

Mon, Aug 17

STL★

Cardinals

75-66

vs55.3%STL

CIN

Reds

68-76

STL 55.3%win prob44.7% CIN

STL 1511 · CIN 1462Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

The matchup, end-to-end.

CIN vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league