Recent form
5-5
PHI +0.3 vs MIA +0.3 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
MIA
MIA
63-61
PregameMon, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
PHI
PHI
66-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Janson Junk
SP · #26
6-7
W-L
4.41
ERA
1.32
WHIP
64
K
87.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPITW(6-7)6.0 IP1 ER2 K
@ATLL(5-7)3.0 IP2 ER1 K
@NYMW(5-6)5.0 IP0 ER4 K
Home starter
Cristopher Sanchez
SP · #61
15-4
W-L
2.54
ERA
1.19
WHIP
181
K
155.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@STL-6.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsWSHW(15-4)5.0 IP2 ER6 K
@BALW(14-4)6.0 IP0 ER11 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs MIA.
PHI is 5-5 recently; MIA is 5-5.
56.6%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI5–5+0.3
- MIA5–5+0.3
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- MIA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 5 straight road games; MIA has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.6strikeouts · ±3.6
Jesus Luzardo · 7.6 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.1.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 7.2 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.5 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 7.
Head-to-head · 0-3 · last 3
PHI is 0-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-27PHI @ MIA7–8
- 2026-07-28PHI @ MIA0–1
- 2026-07-29PHI @ MIA6–8
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.4%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
56.3%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.6%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.3%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.94 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.6± 3.6high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2± 3.2high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5± 2.9high
Hits
- Bryson StottPHI1.2± 0.7high
- Luis ArraezPHI1.2± 1.1high
- Otto LopezMIA1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.3± 3.1high
- Griffin ConineMIA1.8± 2.8high
- Bryson StottPHI1.7± 1.2high
RBIs
- Kyle SchwarberPHI0.8± 1.4high
- Griffin ConineMIA0.6± 1.0high
- Javier SanojaMIA0.5± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.2± 2.3medium
- Aaron NolaPHI3.0± 1.9high
- Janson JunkMIA2.9± 3.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
PHI
.729
OPS
◀
.719
.711
.326
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.38
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.44
3.95
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.15
1.24
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.30
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶10.0
The One modelLean
Mon, Aug 17MIA
Marlins
74-71
vs56.7%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
84-72
MIA 43.3%win prob56.7% PHI
PHI 1524 · MIA 1504Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
