Park factor
98 total idx
PNC Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates
DET
DET
60-63
PregameMon, 7:00 PM EDTESPN
PIT
PIT
60-65
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Framber Valdez
SP · #59
7-8
W-L
4.26
ERA
1.39
WHIP
106
K
133.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCLEL(7-8)5.2 IP4 ER3 K
@SEAW(7-7)7.0 IP0 ER5 K
@ATHW(6-7)7.0 IP2 ER6 K
Home starter
Carmen Mlodzinski
RP · #50
6-5
W-L
3.79
ERA
1.40
WHIP
78
K
99.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@MIAL(6-5)2.1 IP4 ER1 K
vsNYML(6-4)3.0 IP5 ER1 K
@CIN-3.0 IP0 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob47% / 53%
LeanHome · 3pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesPIT wins series 3-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PIT vs DET.
PIT is 3-7 recently; DET is 5-5.
53.0%
model · PIT win prob
Recent form
- PIT3–7-0.4
- DET5–5+1.4
Situational
- PIT2d rest
- DET2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PIT has 0 straight road games; DET has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Paul SkenesPIT6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 6.7 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.6.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Braxton Ashcraft · 6.5 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.5.
- Framber ValdezDET4.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.1%
ensemble · PIT favored
Elo Static
51.2%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.8%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.8%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.41 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PIT vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
117
projections · 95 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Paul SkenesPIT6.7± 2.1high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.5± 2.5high
- Troy MeltonDET5.7± 2.4low
Hits
- Javier BaezDET1.1± 1.0high
- Kevin McGonigleDET1.1± 1.0high
- Spencer TorkelsonDET1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Eduardo ValenciaDET2.1± 1.8medium
- Dillon DinglerDET1.8± 2.5high
- Brandon LowePIT1.8± 1.7high
RBIs
- Dillon DinglerDET0.8± 1.0high
- Eduardo ValenciaDET0.8± 1.5medium
- Rafael Flores Jr.PIT0.8± 2.6low
Earned runs
- Braxton AshcraftPIT2.8± 2.3high
- Paul SkenesPIT2.8± 2.0high
- Framber ValdezDET2.6± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
PIT
.727
OPS
.719
▶.744
.319
OBP
.318
▶.333
4.55
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.00
3.52
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.32
1.21
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.33
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
The One modelTossup
Mon, Aug 17DET
Tigers
63-78
vs53.0%PIT
PIT★
Pirates
65-73
DET 47.0%win prob53.0% PIT
PIT 1480 · DET 1496Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
