Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at GS?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

DAL

20-15

PregameMon, 10:00 PM EDTPeacock, NBCSN

24-9

ATS/GS -6.5O/U/162.5ML/GS-265

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

GS +9.5 vs DAL -2.4 margin

GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+2.0 days

GS 5 rest vs DAL 3

GS has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+134.3

GS Elo vs DAL Elo

GS owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing DAL uphill early today again.

WNBAMon, Aug 178/17 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesGS leads series 2-0VegasGS -6.5

Preview · WNBA

allas Wings visit Golden State Valkyries Monday at 8/17 - 10:00 PM EDT. GS arrives on a 5-game win streak (5-1 in their last 6).

Vegas opened GS as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 162.5. GS's moneyline implies a 73% break-even, DAL the inverse.

For bettors: the GS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 162.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 5 over 6.5h42m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

GS leads series 2-0

Jun 18

DAL80@

GS91

Aug 8

GS94@

DAL76

Aug 18

DAL@

GStoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+21532%

GS-26573%

5· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -6.5↗SpreadBet GS -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

+1.0 since open

Total

162.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

DAL @ GS

8/17 - 10:00 PM EDT

StorylineGS on a 5-game roll.

Rest going in

DALLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 14

GSUnknown

—

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

GS -6.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

162.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

GS -265

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

DALmetricGS

20-15

Record

24-9

Conf rank

+2.4

Pt diff

+6.6

Streak

3-7

Last 10

8-2

79.2

Sched ahead

71.9

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

GS -6.5·O/U 162.5·DAL +215/GS -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

GS vs DAL.

GS enters on a 5-game win streak; DAL is 3-7 over its last 10.

82.3%

model · GS win prob

Recent form

GS8–2+9.5
DAL3–7-2.4

Situational

GS5d rest
DAL3d rest
+2.0d differential

GS has 2 more rest days. GS has 0 straight road games; DAL has 1.

Model angle

+12.7ppon GS

GS's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way.

▲Recent form+2.9pp
▲Model confidence+2.7pp
▲Venue split+2.5pp

Players to watch

Paige BueckersDAL
19.1points · ±6.5
Paige Bueckers · 19.1 pts · last-10 18.6 vs season 19.9.
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
16.6points · ±7.9
Arike Ogunbowale · 16.6 pts · last-10 17.8 vs season 14.8.
Janelle SalaunGS
14.2points · ±6.6
Janelle Salaun · 14.2 pts · last-10 14.9 vs season 13.1.

Head-to-head · 5-1 · last 6

GS is 5-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-26DAL @ GS76–86
2025-08-24GS @ DAL90–81
2025-09-05DAL @ GS80–84
2026-06-17DAL @ GS80–91
2026-08-07GS @ DAL94–76

Line move

open -225→-265toward GS

The market has moved 3.4pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

81.9%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
76.4%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
78.7%
P(GS win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
73.3%
P(GS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like GS.

GS's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way.

+12.7

pp edge · GS

+3.21

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on GS

89.2%

±8.1pp band

5u large — +16.6pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+19.6pp

+6.9pp post-cal

Kelly

60.6%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.38

+16.6pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 12.7pp · GS over DAL

▲
Recent form70% conf
GS is 5-0 over its last 5; DAL is 1-4.
+2.9pp
▲
Model confidence90% conf
GS clears the model's lock threshold.
+2.7pp
▲
Venue split72% conf
GS's venue form is 27.3pp stronger in the recent sample.
+2.5pp
▲
Line steam78% conf
The market moved 3.2pp toward GS since open.
+2.4pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
GS has 5 days rest; DAL has 3.
+1.1pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
GS has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+1.1pp

Open price

-225

Close price

-265

Open no-vig

66.4%

Close no-vig

69.6%

Market steamed in our direction

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at GS?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

GS vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 110 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
19.1± 6.5high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
16.6± 7.9high
Janelle SalaunGS
14.2± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
10.5± 5.1high
Kiah StokesGS
5.6± 2.4high
Alanna SmithDAL
5.1± 3.7high

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
5.9± 2.4high
Paige BueckersDAL
5.4± 2.4high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.1± 3.0high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.7± 1.4high
Awak KuierDAL
1.4± 1.3high
Laeticia AmihereGS
0.9± 1.3high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.7± 1.1high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.6± 1.0high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries

GS vs DAL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like GS.

GS vs DAL.