Recent form
3-7
KC -1.1 vs ATH -2.2 margin
KC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Athletics at Kansas City Royals
ATH
ATH
48-75
PregameMon, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
KC
KC
50-74
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketKauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
M
Mason Barnett
RP · #63
1-3
W-L
6.16
ERA
1.45
WHIP
36
K
38.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTBL(1-3)4.0 IP5 ER0 K
@CINL(1-2)4.1 IP5 ER7 K
vsBOS-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
Home starter
Michael Wacha
SP · #52
5-8
W-L
3.46
ERA
1.15
WHIP
117
K
150.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAD-6.2 IP3 ER5 K
vsMIN-5.2 IP1 ER1 K
@COLL(5-8)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
KC vs ATH.
KC is 3-7 recently; ATH is 3-7.
60.9%
model · KC win prob
Recent form
- KC3–7-1.1
- ATH3–7-2.2
Situational
- KC2d rest
- ATH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. KC has 5 straight road games; ATH has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Noah CameronKC5.3strikeouts · ±3.3
Noah Cameron · 5.3 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.1.
- Michael WachaKC4.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Michael Wacha · 4.7 K · last-10 4.7 vs season 4.8.
- J.T. GinnATH4.6strikeouts · ±1.6
J.T. Ginn · 4.6 K · last-10 4.7 vs season 4.5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.7%
ensemble · KC favored
Elo Static
62.2%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.4%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.5%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.43 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
KC vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gage JumpATH5.8± 3.7medium
- Noah CameronKC5.3± 3.3high
- Michael WachaKC4.7± 2.1high
Hits
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.5± 1.0high
- Bobby Witt Jr.KC1.2± 1.2high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Jac CaglianoneKC2.8± 3.5high
- Tyler SoderstromATH2.0± 1.1high
- Bobby Witt Jr.KC1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.2± 1.8high
- Luke MaileKC0.7± 1.5low
- Carlos CortesATH0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Jack PerkinsATH3.4± 1.8high
- Seth LugoKC3.3± 2.1high
- Noah CameronKC3.0± 2.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
KC
.717
OPS
◀
.719
.703
.317
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.35
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.11
5.48
Team ERA
4.16
▶4.82
1.50
WHIP
1.30
▶1.42
8.6
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.6
The One modelEdge
Mon, Aug 17ATH
Athletics
57-89
vs60.9%KC
KC★
Royals
62-82
ATH 39.1%win prob60.9% KC
KC 1464 · ATH 1402Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
