Park factor
96 total idx
Citi Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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San Diego Padres at New York Mets
SD
SD
66-58
PregameMon, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
NYM
NYM
55-69
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketCiti Field · Queens, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Walker Buehler
SP · #10
7-5
W-L
4.88
ERA
1.43
WHIP
100
K
114.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMILW(7-5)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
@ARI-4.0 IP1 ER3 K
vsSF-4.1 IP3 ER1 K
Home starter
Nolan McLean
SP · #26
8-8
W-L
3.42
ERA
1.13
WHIP
159
K
136.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATLL(8-8)6.0 IP1 ER3 K
@CLEW(8-7)5.0 IP5 ER8 K
vsMIA-6.1 IP2 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob53% / 48%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesNYM lead series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYM vs SD.
NYM is 7-3 recently; SD is 7-3.
47.5%
model · NYM win prob
Recent form
- NYM7–3+1.1
- SD7–3+0.9
Situational
- NYM2d rest
- SD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYM has 0 straight road games; SD has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.9strikeouts · ±2.1
Nolan McLean · 6.9 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.6.
- Sean ManaeaNYM5.0strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Manaea · 5 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 4.2.
- Michael KingSD5.0strikeouts · ±1.0
Michael King · 5 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.4%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
47.7%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.5%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.85 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYM vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 100 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.9± 2.1high
- Christian ScottNYM5.9± 1.4medium
- Sean ManaeaNYM5.0± 2.4high
Hits
- Bo BichetteNYM1.3± 1.4high
- Carson BengeNYM1.3± 1.0high
- Jackson MerrillSD1.2± 0.9high
Total bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2.3± 2.1high
- Jackson MerrillSD2.2± 1.6high
- Bo BichetteNYM2.0± 2.4high
RBIs
- Jackson MerrillSD0.9± 0.7high
- Bo BichetteNYM0.7± 0.9high
- Luis TorrensNYM0.7± 1.4high
Earned runs
- Robert StockNYM3.0± 5.9low
- Walker BuehlerSD2.9± 2.8high
- Casey MizeSD2.2± 2.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
NYM
.701
OPS
.719
.696
.314
OBP
◀
.318
.307
4.27
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.19
4.11
Team ERA
4.16
4.10
1.32
WHIP
1.30
▶1.30
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
The One modelTossup
Mon, Aug 17SD★
Padres
75-70
vs52.5%SD
NYM
Mets
65-81
SD 52.5%win prob47.5% NYM
SD 1529 · NYM 1489Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CardinalsReds8/17 - 1:40 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/17 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MarlinsPhillies8/17 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsReds8/17 - 6:40 PM EDT
- TigersPirates8/17 - 7:00 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksRed Sox8/17 - 7:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRoyals8/17 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BravesTwins8/17 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxCubs8/17 - 8:05 PM EDT
- DodgersRockies8/17 - 8:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
