St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 17, 2026

STL

62-61

PregameMon, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

CIN

59-63

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

103 total idx

Great American Ball Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

STL +1.0 vs CIN -1.8 margin

STL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

Rhett Lowder

SP · #25

4-8

W-L

5.15

ERA

1.48

WHIP

94.1

Last 3 starts

@CHWL(4-8)5.1 IP2 ER4 K

vsATHW(4-7)6.0 IP2 ER3 K

vsPIT-6.0 IP2 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob52% / 48%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSTL leads series 5-3

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

CIN vs STL.

CIN is 5-5 recently; STL is 6-4.

48.2%

model · CIN win prob

Recent form

CIN5–5-1.8
STL6–4+1.0

Situational

CIN2d rest
STL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CIN has 0 straight road games; STL has 2.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.3pp

Players to watch

Chase BurnsCIN
6.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.4 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.6.
Kyle LeahySTL
5.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Kyle Leahy · 5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.6.
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Matthew Liberatore · 5 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 4.8.

Head-to-head · 2-1 · last 3

CIN is 2-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-24CIN @ STL4–2
2026-07-25CIN @ STL0–7
2026-07-26CIN @ STL5–3

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
48.1%
P(CIN win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
48.1%
P(CIN win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.8%
P(CIN win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.4± 2.5high
Kyle LeahySTL
5.0± 2.3high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 2.3high

Hits

Ivan HerreraSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.2± 0.8high
Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 3.7high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
2.0± 2.1high
Ivan HerreraSTL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 2.1high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.3high
Tyler StephensonCIN
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.2high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.6± 2.5high
Andrew AbbottCIN
2.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

CIN

.695

OPS

.719

.701

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.307

4.37

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.04

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.50

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.40

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

The One modelTossup

Mon, Aug 17

STL★

Cardinals

74-66

vs51.8%STL

CIN

Reds

68-75

STL 51.8%win prob48.2% CIN

STL 1504 · CIN 1467Box score→

Team pages

St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

The matchup, end-to-end.

CIN vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league