Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at CHC?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 17, 2026

CHW

65-58

PregameMon, 8:05 PM EDTMLB.TV

CHC

72-53

ATS/CHC -1.5O/U/8.5ML/CHC-172

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

CHW +0.8 vs CHC +0.1 margin

CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 0.0 · +8.5

CHC no-vig %

60.5%

open 60.8% · -0.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Luis Castillo

SP · #58

4-9

W-L

4.96

ERA

1.35

WHIP

101

110.2

Last 3 starts

vsCINW(4-9)7.0 IP0 ER10 K

@BOS-4.0 IP5 ER5 K

@LAD-5.0 IP5 ER2 K

Home starter

Shota Imanaga

SP · #18

8-9

W-L

3.74

ERA

1.10

WHIP

130

137.1

Last 3 starts

@WSH-4.2 IP4 ER5 K

vsLADW(8-9)5.0 IP1 ER6 K

vsNYYL(7-9)6.2 IP2 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money+142 / -172

Model edge

Win prob42% / 58%

LeanHome · 8pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesCHW win series 3-0

TypePreseason Series

Place a bet

Take CHC on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-172Bet CHC ML↗-172Bet CHC ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

CHC vs CHW.

CHC is 6-4 recently; CHW is 6-4.

58.2%

model · CHC win prob

Recent form

CHC6–4+0.1
CHW6–4+0.8

Situational

CHC1d restB2B
CHW1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CHC has 0 straight road games; CHW has 3.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3strikeouts · ±2.3
Sean Burke · 7.3 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 6.3.
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Kevin Gausman · 5.3 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.5.
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1strikeouts · ±1.5
Shota Imanaga · 5.1 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 5.4.

Line move

open -175→-172toward CHW

The market has moved 0.4pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
58.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.3%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.3%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.35

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.5%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at CHC?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CHC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.3high
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.3± 2.4high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1± 1.4high

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.3± 0.8high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Michael BuschCHC
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Alex BregmanCHC
2.3± 3.8high
Chase MeidrothCHW
2.3± 2.7high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.1± 3.1high

RBIs

Alex BregmanCHC
1.0± 2.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.1high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.3± 2.7low
Kevin GausmanCHC
3.3± 2.1high
David PetersonCHC
2.7± 2.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

CHC

.730

OPS

.719

▶

.754

.318

OBP

.318

▶

.337

4.83

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.16

4.11

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.16

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

The One modelEdge

Mon, Aug 17

CHW

White Sox

81-65

vs58.2%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

85-64

CHW 41.8%win prob58.2% CHC

CHC 1567 · CHW 1529Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take CHC on the model side.

CHC vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CHC vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

Closing-line value.