Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 17, 2026

LAD

74-50

PregameMon, 8:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

COL

49-74

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

115 total idx

Coors Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

LAD -0.1 vs COL -1.7 margin

LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Blake Snell

SP · #7

0-1

W-L

5.00

ERA

1.33

WHIP

9.0

Last 2 starts

vsKC-6.0 IP1 ER10 K

vsATLL(0-1)3.0 IP4 ER5 K

Home starter

Tomoyuki Sugano

SP · #11

12-5

W-L

4.43

ERA

1.25

WHIP

113.2

Last 3 starts

@ARIW(12-5)6.0 IP2 ER5 K

vsTBL(11-5)5.0 IP3 ER3 K

vsKCW(11-4)6.2 IP1 ER2 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob73% / 27%

LeanAway · 23pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

COL vs LAD.

COL is 4-6 recently; LAD is 5-5.

26.6%

model · COL win prob

Recent form

COL4–6-1.7
LAD5–5-0.1

Situational

COL2d rest
LAD2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. COL has 8 straight road games; LAD has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+1.3pp

Players to watch

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3strikeouts · ±2.1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.3 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.2.
Justin WrobleskiLAD
5.2strikeouts · ±3.0
Justin Wrobleski · 5.2 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 4.7.
Roki SasakiLAD
4.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Roki Sasaki · 4.9 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 5.1.

Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2

COL is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-07COL @ LAD4–3
2026-07-08COL @ LAD3–4

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
36.2%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
36.5%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.5medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 2.1high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.3± 1.4high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.0high
Andy PagesLAD
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.2± 3.0high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.1± 2.9high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.0± 3.3high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Max MuncyLAD
0.8± 1.4high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.4± 2.0high
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.2± 2.0high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.2± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

COL

.763

OPS

◀

.719

.741

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.322

4.95

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.74

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.16

5.46

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.51

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

The One model★ Lock

Mon, Aug 17

LAD★

Dodgers

89-64

vs73.4%LAD

COL

Rockies

55-88

LAD 73.4%win prob26.6% COL

LAD 1548 · COL 1425Box score→

Team pages

Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

The matchup, end-to-end.

COL vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league