Recent form
6-4
NYY +1.0 vs TOR +0.6 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
TOR
TOR
64-67
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
NYY
NYY
73-56
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Line movement
200 snapshots
NYY spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 8.0 · -0.5
NYY no-vig %
56.1%
open 56.4% · -0.3
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jose Soriano
SP · #40
10-6
W-L
3.23
ERA
1.26
WHIP
136
K
139.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@TBW(10-6)5.2 IP3 ER2 K
vsBOS-6.0 IP1 ER4 K
@PHI-4.2 IP1 ER3 K
Home starter
Carlos Rodon
SP · #55
4-2
W-L
3.22
ERA
1.23
WHIP
56
K
50.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@BAL-4.0 IP1 ER4 K
@BOS-5.0 IP0 ER6 K
@DETW(4-2)5.1 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+120 / -129
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take NYY on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs TOR.
NYY is 6-4 recently; TOR is 6-4.
61.4%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY6–4+1.0
- TOR6–4+0.6
Situational
- NYY1d restB2B
- TOR1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; TOR has 5.
Model angle
+6.1ppon NYY
NYY's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.
- ▲Model confidence+3.3pp
- ▲Travel burden+2.4pp
- ▲Head to head+0.4pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.5.
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Cam Schlittler · 7.4 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 7.1.
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.2strikeouts · ±1.4
Ryan Weathers · 5.2 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 5.7.
Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5
NYY is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14NYY @ TOR1–3
- 2026-08-15NYY @ TOR1–4
- 2026-08-16NYY @ TOR4–3
- 2026-08-21TOR @ NYY1–3
- 2026-08-22TOR @ NYY4–3
Line move
open -144→-142toward TOR
The market has moved 0.3pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.1%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
62.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.3%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.80 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 97 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4± 2.6high
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4± 2.5high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.8± 2.3medium
Hits
- Brett BatemanTOR1.5± 1.3low
- Alejandro KirkTOR1.3± 0.7high
- Ernie ClementTOR1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Alejandro KirkTOR2.1± 2.4high
- Trent GrishamNYY2.0± 3.3high
- Daz CameronTOR2.0± 2.9low
RBIs
- Trent GrishamNYY0.7± 1.5high
- Alejandro KirkTOR0.7± 1.1high
- Ben RiceNYY0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Max ScherzerTOR3.5± 3.8low
- Spencer ArrighettiTOR3.5± 2.9medium
- Will WarrenNYY2.8± 2.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
NYY
.687
OPS
.718
▶.714
.307
OBP
.318
.308
3.95
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.43
3.95
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.21
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.18
8.8
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 23TOR
Blue Jays
68-96
vs61.4%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
84-68
TOR 38.6%win prob61.4% NYY
NYY 1534 · TOR 1474Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CardinalsPhillies8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/23 - 1:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/23 - 2:35 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/23 - 3:10 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/23 - 3:15 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/23 - 4:15 PM EDT
- BravesBrewers8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
