Recent form
8-2
PHI +1.6 vs STL +1.6 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
STL
STL
66-64
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
PHI
PHI
71-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kyle Leahy
SP · #62
10-4
W-L
3.24
ERA
1.31
WHIP
111
K
122.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@CINW(10-4)5.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsPHIW(9-4)5.0 IP1 ER6 K
vsCOLW(8-4)5.0 IP2 ER8 K
Home starter
Cristopher Sanchez
SP · #61
16-4
W-L
2.51
ERA
1.22
WHIP
187
K
161.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIAW(16-4)6.0 IP1 ER6 K
@STL-6.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsWSHW(15-4)5.0 IP2 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesPHI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs STL.
PHI enters on a 7-game win streak; STL is 6-4 over its last 10.
59.1%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI8–2+1.6
- STL6–4+1.6
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- STL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; STL has 9.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.2
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.6 vs season 7.2.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 7.2 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.5 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 7.
Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4
PHI is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-10PHI @ STL6–5
- 2026-08-11PHI @ STL0–2
- 2026-08-12PHI @ STL1–7
- 2026-08-21STL @ PHI6–7
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.4%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
58.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.2%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.38 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.2high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2± 3.2high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.5± 2.9high
Hits
- Alec BohmPHI1.5± 1.4high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.4± 1.2high
- Luis ArraezPHI1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.7± 2.6high
- Alec BohmPHI2.3± 2.4high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.2± 3.1high
RBIs
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.1± 1.6high
- Alec BohmPHI1.0± 1.4high
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.0± 1.5high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.5± 2.2medium
- Aaron NolaPHI2.9± 1.9high
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.8± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
STL
league avg
PHI
.700
OPS
.718
▶.715
.318
OBP
◀
.318
.313
4.45
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.50
4.06
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.12
1.33
WHIP
1.30
▶1.31
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶10.0
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 23STL
Cardinals
78-69
vs59.1%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
89-72
STL 40.9%win prob59.1% PHI
PHI 1542 · STL 1510Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RaysOrioles8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Blue JaysYankees8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/23 - 1:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/23 - 2:35 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/23 - 3:10 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/23 - 3:15 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/23 - 4:15 PM EDT
- BravesBrewers8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
