Recent form
5-5
HOU -1.4 vs ATH -2.1 margin
HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Athletics at Houston Astros
ATH
ATH
49-80
PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
HOU
HOU
65-64
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jack Perkins
RP · #50
2-9
W-L
6.96
ERA
1.48
WHIP
98
K
85.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@KC-3.2 IP0 ER4 K
vsTBL(2-9)5.0 IP6 ER2 K
@BOSL(2-8)3.0 IP5 ER3 K
Home starter
Cristian Javier
SP · #53
1-4
W-L
6.44
ERA
1.68
WHIP
30
K
36.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLAAL(1-4)4.0 IP2 ER5 K
@SDL(1-3)5.0 IP4 ER2 K
vsTORL(1-2)6.0 IP3 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob33% / 67%
LeanHome · 17pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesHOU leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs ATH.
HOU is 5-5 recently; ATH is 2-8.
67.4%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU5–5-1.4
- ATH2–8-2.1
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- ATH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; ATH has 5.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Peter LambertHOU5.5strikeouts · ±2.4
Peter Lambert · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
- J.T. GinnATH4.8strikeouts · ±1.7
J.T. Ginn · 4.8 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 4.6.
- Jacob LopezATH4.6strikeouts · ±2.4
Jacob Lopez · 4.6 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 4.1.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
HOU is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-21ATH @ HOU0–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
67.5%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
71.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
71.6%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
70.9%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.31 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 97 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Peter LambertHOU5.5± 2.4high
- Gage JumpATH5.4± 3.6medium
- Hunter BrownHOU5.1± 2.1low
Hits
- Henry BolteATH1.2± 1.1high
- Isaac ParedesHOU1.2± 1.1high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Lawrence ButlerATH1.9± 1.6high
- Cam SmithHOU1.9± 3.2high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.8± 2.7high
RBIs
- Brian ServenATH0.6± 1.1low
- Carlos CortesATH0.6± 1.2high
- Jeff McNeilATH0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Kade MorrisATH4.3± 5.6low
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.8± 1.8high
- Gage JumpATH3.3± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
HOU
.716
OPS
.718
▶.728
.317
OBP
.318
.317
4.32
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.55
5.50
Team ERA
4.16
▶4.62
1.51
WHIP
1.30
▶1.36
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.8
The One model★ Lock
Sun, Aug 23ATH
Athletics
58-94
vs67.4%HOU
HOU★
Astros
83-73
ATH 32.6%win prob67.4% HOU
HOU 1523 · ATH 1392Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
