Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

25-13

PregameSun, 7:00 PM EDTTSN, WNBA League Pass, Vegas 34

TOR

11-25

ATS/LV -14.5O/U/180.5ML/LV-1100

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

5-5

LV -0.8 vs TOR -11.3 margin

LV brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-1.0 days

TOR 2 rest vs LV 3

LV has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+233.9

TOR Elo vs LV Elo

LV owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing TOR uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 238/23 - 7:00 PM EDTSeriesLV leads series 1-0VegasLV -14.5

Preview · WNBA

as Vegas Aces visit Toronto Tempo Sunday at 8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT. LV is 5-4 in their last 9.

Vegas opened LV as a 14.5-point favorite with the total at 180.5. TOR's moneyline implies a 13% break-even, LV the inverse.

For bettors: the LV side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 180.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

FG %

Season series

LV leads series 1-0

Jul 21

LV109@

TOR83

Aug 23

LV@

TORtoday

Aug 29

TOR@

LVupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -14.5

Between 10 and —

2.0pt· 6.5h

Total

180.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

LV-110092%

TOR+70013%

250· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -14.5↗SpreadBet LV -14.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

+2.0 since open

Total

180.5

-3.0 since open

Scouting report

LV @ TOR

8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

LV +1 day

LVStandard

2 days

last game Aug 20

TORStandard

1 day

last game Aug 21

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

LV -14.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

180.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LV -1100

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

LVmetricTOR

25-13

Record

11-25

Conf rank

+3.5

Pt diff

-6.4

Streak

5-5

Last 10

1-9

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

LV -14.5·O/U 180.5·LV -1100/TOR +700

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

TOR vs LV.

TOR is 1-9 recently; LV is 5-5.

18.8%

model · TOR win prob

Recent form

TOR1–9-11.3
LV5–5-0.8

Situational

TOR2d rest
LV3d rest
-1.0d differential

LV has 1 more rest day. TOR has 0 straight road games; LV has 0.

Model angle

+6.8ppon TOR

TOR's edge is driven by model confidence. Line steam keeps it from reading cleaner.

▼Line steam-1.8pp
▼Venue split-1.0pp
▲Model confidence+0.9pp

Players to watch

A'ja WilsonLV
25.4points · ±7.1
A'ja Wilson · 25.4 pts · last-10 25.4 vs season 25.4.
Jackie YoungLV
21.4points · ±6.7
Jackie Young · 21.4 pts · last-10 23.3 vs season 18.5.
Marina MabreyTOR
20.7points · ±8.0
Marina Mabrey · 20.7 pts · last-10 20.6 vs season 20.9.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

TOR is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-20LV @ TOR109–83

Line move

open +500→+750toward LV

The market has moved 4.9pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

20.3%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
28.0%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
27.8%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
32.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like TOR.

TOR's edge is driven by model confidence. Line steam keeps it from reading cleaner.

+6.8

pp edge · TOR

-4.00

CLV pp · steam

Pass

9.4%

±6.6pp band

Pass — negative expected value (-3.1pp edge).

Edge

-2.6pp

-9.4pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

8.00

-3.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.8pp · TOR over LV

▼
Line steam85% conf
The market moved 4.7pp away from TOR since open.
-1.8pp
▼
Venue split68% conf
LV's venue form trims TOR's edge by 19.4pp.
-1.0pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
TOR grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▼
Recent form70% conf
LV's recent form is stronger over the last 5.
-0.8pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
LV has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.3pp

Open price

+500

Close price

+700

Open no-vig

16.0%

Close no-vig

12.0%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.8pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

no live price

TOR

★ best

+700DraftKings

edge +6.8pp · implied 12.0%

Book	LV	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-1100	+700★	+6.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.4± 7.1high
Jackie YoungLV
21.4± 6.7high
Marina MabreyTOR
20.7± 8.0high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.2± 3.7high
NaLyssa SmithLV
7.2± 3.0high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
7.2± 4.2high

Assists

Jackie YoungLV
6.5± 2.8high
Chelsea GrayLV
6.1± 2.2high
Julie AllemandTOR
5.9± 2.7high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
2.1± 1.2high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
0.9± 1.1high
NaLyssa SmithLV
0.7± 0.9high

Steals

Chelsea GrayLV
1.3± 1.2high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.3± 1.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Las Vegas Aces at Toronto Tempo

TOR vs LV.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like TOR.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs LV.