Las Vegas Aces at Toronto Tempo
LV
12-4
TOR
8-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
as Vegas Aces visit Toronto Tempo Sunday at 8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
49
FG %
44
Season series
Series starts 7/20
LV@TORupcomingLV@TORtodayTOR@LVupcomingScouting report
LV @ TOR
Tale of the tape
12-4
Record
8-9
#2
Conf rank
#5
+4.4
Pt diff
-2.4
W2
Streak
L1
8-2
Last 10
5-5
70.8
Sched ahead
42.8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.8± 6.6medium
- Marina MabreyTOR19.9± 9.6medium
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.6± 4.4medium
- NaLyssa SmithLV6.9± 3.3medium
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR6.0± 3.4low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.3± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV7.1± 2.4medium
- Marina MabreyTOR4.0± 2.3medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.1± 2.0medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.3± 1.6low
- Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV0.7± 0.8medium
Steals
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.7± 1.5medium
- Julie AllemandTOR1.6± 1.1low
- A'ja WilsonLV1.5± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
TOR
48.3%
FG%
44.6
43.9%
36.3%
3PT %
33.3
34.8%
89.1
PPG
85.9
89.4
23.0
Assists / G
18.0
19.6
12.5
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.1