Park factor
96 total idx
LoanDepot Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
WSH
WSH
61-70
PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIA
MIA
66-64
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketloanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIA spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
MIA no-vig %
59.3%
open 59.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
J
Jackson Kent
SP · #25
0-1
W-L
9.39
ERA
2.48
WHIP
9
K
7.2
IP
Last 2 starts
@TEXL(0-1)3.2 IP5 ER3 K
vsCHC-4.0 IP3 ER6 K
Home starter
Janson Junk
SP · #26
6-8
W-L
4.37
ERA
1.36
WHIP
66
K
92.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@PHIL(6-8)5.0 IP2 ER2 K
vsPITW(6-7)6.0 IP1 ER2 K
@ATLL(5-7)3.0 IP2 ER1 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+146 / -157
Model edge
Win prob40% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesMIA leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take MIA on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
MIA vs WSH.
MIA is 5-5 recently; WSH is 2-8.
59.6%
model · MIA win prob
Recent form
- MIA5–5+0.0
- WSH2–8-0.8
Situational
- MIA1d restB2B
- WSH1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIA has 0 straight road games; WSH has 8.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Cade CavalliWSH6.8strikeouts · ±3.6
Cade Cavalli · 6.8 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.
- Eury PerezMIA6.2strikeouts · ±2.3
Eury Perez · 6.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA4.9strikeouts · ±2.7
Sandy Alcantara · 4.9 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.9.
Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2
MIA is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-21WSH @ MIA2–3
- 2026-08-22WSH @ MIA2–4
Line move
open -163→-163flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.3%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
58.5%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.3%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.16 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 93 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cade CavalliWSH6.8± 3.6high
- Eury PerezMIA6.2± 2.3high
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA4.9± 2.7high
Hits
- Keibert RuizWSH1.2± 1.1high
- Xavier EdwardsMIA1.1± 0.7high
- Javier SanojaMIA1.0± 1.1high
Total bases
- Heriberto HernandezMIA1.6± 1.7high
- Javier SanojaMIA1.6± 2.1high
- Abimelec OrtizWSH1.6± 2.3medium
RBIs
- Heriberto HernandezMIA0.7± 1.0high
- Javier SanojaMIA0.7± 1.1high
- Andres ChaparroWSH0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Jake IrvinWSH3.3± 1.9medium
- Janson JunkMIA2.7± 3.4medium
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA2.1± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
WSH
league avg
MIA
.755
OPS
◀
.718
.728
.324
OBP
.318
.326
5.19
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.36
4.67
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.92
1.39
WHIP
1.30
▶1.25
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶8.4
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 23WSH
Nationals
72-77
vs59.6%MIA
MIA★
Marlins
77-74
WSH 40.4%win prob59.6% MIA
MIA 1505 · WSH 1469Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CardinalsPhillies8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Blue JaysYankees8/23 - 1:35 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/23 - 2:10 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/23 - 2:35 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/23 - 3:10 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/23 - 3:15 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/23 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/23 - 4:15 PM EDT
- BravesBrewers8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
